How to forecast actual future values using XGBoost? - machine-learning

Question

So I have a solar Irradiation dataset having around 61000+ rows & 2 columns. I have made the model using XGBoost to predict the future values.
I have splitted the data in 2 parts train and test and trained the model accordingly. Furthermore, I have made the predictions on the test data set. Everything is going fine. But now I want to predict the actual forecast How can I do that ??
import os
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import xgboost
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from xgboost import plot_importance
from sklearn import metrics
# Dataset
df=pd.read_csv('Readings_last_7yr.csv')
df.index = pd.to_datetime(df['Date'], format='%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S')
## Copied the dataset
df2 = df.copy()
del df2['Date']
## Test Train Split
from pandas import read_csv
from matplotlib import pyplot
# series = read_csv('sunspots.csv', header=0, index_col=0)
X = df2
train_size = int(len(X) * 0.75)
train, test = X[0:train_size], X[train_size:len(X)]
print('Observations: %d' % (len(X)))
print('Training Observations: %d' % (len(train)))
print('Testing Observations: %d' % (len(test)))
pyplot.plot(train)
pyplot.plot(test)
pyplot.show()
## Creating Features
def create_features(df, target_variable):
df['date'] = df.index
df['hour'] = df['date'].dt.hour
df['dayofweek'] = df['date'].dt.dayofweek
df['quarter'] = df['date'].dt.quarter
df['month'] = df['date'].dt.month
df['year'] = df['date'].dt.year
df['dayofyear'] = df['date'].dt.dayofyear
df['dayofmonth'] = df['date'].dt.day
df['weekofyear'] = df['date'].dt.weekofyear
X = df[['hour','dayofweek','quarter','month','year',
'dayofyear','dayofmonth','weekofyear']]
if target_variable:
y = df[target_variable]
return X, y
return X
## METRICS
def mean_absolute_percentage_error(y_true, y_pred):
y_true, y_pred = np.array(y_true), np.array(y_pred)
return np.mean(np.abs((y_true - y_pred) / y_true)) * 100
def timeseries_evaluation_metrics_func(y_true, y_pred):
print(f'MSE is : {metrics.mean_squared_error(y_true, y_pred)}')
print(f'MAE is : {metrics.mean_absolute_error(y_true, y_pred)}')
print(f'RMSE is : {np.sqrt(metrics.mean_squared_error(y_true, y_pred))}')
print(f'MAPE is : {mean_absolute_percentage_error(y_true, y_pred)}')
print(f'R2 is : {metrics.r2_score(y_true, y_pred)}',end='\n\n')
train_copy = train.copy()
test_copy = test.copy()
trainX, trainY = create_features(train_copy, target_variable='Irr')
testX, testY = create_features(test_copy, target_variable='Irr')
xgb = XGBRegressor(objective= 'reg:linear', n_estimators=1000)
xgb
xgb.fit(trainX, trainY,
eval_set=[(trainX, trainY), (testX, testY)],
early_stopping_rounds=50,
verbose=False)
# Predictions
predicted_results = xgb.predict(testX)
# Metrics
timeseries_evaluation_metrics_func(testY, predicted_results)
# Plotting graph for test and Predicted
plt.figure(figsize=(13,8))
plt.plot(list(testY))
plt.plot(list(predicted_results))
plt.title("Actual vs Predicted")
plt.ylabel("Irr")
plt.legend(('Actual','predicted'))
plt.show()
# Making graph of predicted on the whole dataframe
test['Prediction'] = predicted_results
Irr_all = pd.concat([test, train], sort=False)
Irr_all = Irr_all.rename(columns={'Irradiation':'Original_Value'})
Overview_Complete_Data_And_Prediction = Irr_all[['Irr','Prediction']].plot(figsize=(12, 5))
I am getting the results as:
So now I want to predict future values from the year 2021 till 2023.
FUTURE PREDICTION
dti = pd.date_range("2021-01-01 00:30:00", periods=20000, freq="H")
df_future_dates = pd.DataFrame(dti, columns = ['Date'])
df_future_dates['Irr'] = np.nan
df_future_dates.index = pd.to_datetime(df_future_dates['Date'], format='%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S')
df_future_dates_copy = df_future_dates.copy()
testX_future, testY_future = create_features(df_future_dates, target_variable='Irr')
xgb = XGBRegressor(objective= 'reg:linear', n_estimators=1000)
xgb
## Now here I have used train and test from above
xgb.fit(trainX, trainY,
eval_set=[(trainX, trainY), (testX, testY)],
early_stopping_rounds=50,
verbose=False)
predicted_results_future = xgb.predict(testX_future)
# Graph
plt.figure(figsize=(13,8))
plt.plot(list(predicted_results_future))
plt.title("Predicted")
plt.ylabel("Irr")
plt.legend(('predicted'))
plt.show()
df_future_dates_copy['Prediction'] = predicted_results_future
Irr_all_future = pd.concat([df2, df_future_dates_copy], sort=False)
# Future Graph
Overview_Complete_Data_And_Prediction_future = Irr_all_future[['Irr','Prediction']].plot(figsize=(15, 5))