Leaderboard in H2O AutoML - machine-learning

I have just started learn to use H2O Auto ML and I am trying out a binary Classification model.
I am trying to understand why do the rankings of the model change with every run.
The top 5 models remain in top 5, but the models slightly shift to a higher or lower rank.
While DRF was ranked 2nd once, the other time it raked 3rd.
There are couple of reasons I can speculate that causes changes.
Seed to the algorithm changes each time
There is no leader board frame assigned
RF involve random sampling as part of the process resulting in different trees built each time
The leader board will not change, some other change to data / code is responsible for the change.
Could you please help me understand this better.

It sounds like you're not setting a seed, so you should start there. In order for the algorithms with inherent randomness (e.g. XGBoost, GBM, Random Forest) to produce the same answer each time, a random seed must be set (at minimum). In H2O AutoML, there's a single seed argument (which gets piped down to all the individual algorithms) and if you set it to the same value each time, most of the models will be the same on repeated runs. By default, AutoML will also do cross-validation with random folds, so this also guarantees the same folds are used each time.
There are a few caveats -- H2O Deep Learning is not reproducible (by default) even if you set a seed, so those models will always change. Since the "All Models" Stacked Ensemble uses Deep Learning models in addition to a bunch of other models, the final ensemble will also be non-reproducible.
Lastly, you should use the max_models instead of max_runtime_secs to control how long AutoML should run for -- otherwise you may get a different number of models on the leaderboard (and in the All Models Stacked Ensemble) on subsequent runs.

Related

Feature selection needed before train-test split due to the small size of test set and small size of instance. What should be done?

I am working on an NLP project where I need to predict correct classes of short sentences -- which are instances in my case. I am using root-words as features. My dataset is not too large (about 6000 instances/sentences). Since there are too many features I used MI based feature-selection method to reduce the number of features to about 1000.
My problem is: if I split the dataset and then do feature selection on training set only, then the model/classifier is built based on features available in training set only -- most of which (features in trained model) are absent in the testing set. As a result our model may perform very bad.
What should I do to resolve this issue?
I am currently selecting features first and then doing CV. I know that this approach may cause data leakage from test set to train set. But I'm still doing that because of the aforementioned issue.

Does the training+testing set have to be different from the predicting set (so that you need to apply a time-shift to ALL columns)?

I know the general rule that we should test a trained classifier only on the testing set.
But now comes the question: When I have an already trained and tested classifier ready, can I apply it to the same dataset that was the base of the training and testing set? Or do I have to apply it to a new predicting set that is different from the training+testing set?
And what if I predict a label column of a time series (edited later: I do not mean to create a classical time series analysis here, but just a broad selection of columns from a typical database, weekly, monthly or randomly stored data that I convert into separate feature columns, each for one week / month / year ...), do I have to shift all of the features (not just the past columns of the time series label column, but also all other normal features) of the training+testing set back to a point in time where the data has no "knowledge" interception with the predicting set?
I would then train and test the classifier on features shifted to the past by n months, scoring against a label column that is unshifted and most recent, and then predicting from most recent, unshifted features. Shifted and unshifted features have the same number of columns, I align shifted and unshifted features by assigning the column names of the shifted features to the unshifted features.
p.s.:
p.s.1: The general approach on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dependent_and_independent_variables
In data mining tools (for multivariate statistics and machine learning), the dependent variable is assigned a role as target variable (or in some tools as label attribute), while an independent variable may be assigned a role as regular variable.[8] Known values for the target variable are provided for the training data set and test data set, but should be predicted for other data.
p.s.2: In this basic tutorial we can see that the predicting set is made different: https://scikit-learn.org/stable/tutorial/basic/tutorial.html
We select the training set with the [:-1] Python syntax, which produces a new array that contains all > but the last item from digits.data: […] Now you can predict new values. In this case, you’ll predict using the last image from digits.data [-1:]. By predicting, you’ll determine the image from the training set that best matches the last image.
I think you are mixing up some concepts, so I will try to give a general explanation for Supervised Learning.
The training set is what your algorithm LEARNS on. You split it in X (features) and Y (target variable).
The test set is a set that you use to SCORE your model, and it must contain data that was not in the training set. This means that a test set also has X and Y (meaning that you know the value of the target). What happens is that you PREDICT f(Y) based on X, and compare it with the Y you have, and see how good your predictions are
A prediction set is simply new data! This means that usually you DO NOT have a target, since the whole point of supervised learning is predicting it. You will only have your X (features) and you will predict f(X) (your estimate of the target Y) and use it for whatever you need.
So, in the end a test set is simply a prediction set for which you have a target to compare your estimation to.
For time series, it is a bit more complicated, because often the features (X) are transformations on past data of the target variable (Y). For example, if you want to predict today's SP500 price, you might want to use the average of the last 30 days as a feature. This means that for every new day, you need to recompute this feature over the past days.
In general though, I would suggest starting with NON time series data if you're new to ML, as Time Series is much harder in terms of feature engineering and data management and it is easy to make mistakes.
The question above When I have an already trained and tested classifier ready, can I apply it to the same dataset that was the base of the training and testing set? has the simple answer: No.
The question above Do I have to shift all of the features has the simple answer: Yes.
In short, if I predict a month's class column: I have to shift all of the non-class columns also back in time in addition to the previous class months I converted to features, all data must have been known before the month in that the class is predicted.
This also means: the predicting set has to be different from the dataset that contains the testing set. If you included the testing set, the training set loses valuable up-to-date data of the latest month(s) available! The term of a final "predicting set" is meant to be the "most current input to be used without a testing set" to get the "most current results" for the prediction.
This is confirmed by the following overview offered by this user who seems to have made the image, using days instead of months here, but the idea is the same:
Source: Answer on "Cross Validated" - Splitting Time Series Data into Train/Test/Validation Sets; the whole Q/A is recommended (!).
See the last line of the image and the valuable comments of that answer on "Cross Validated" to understand this.
230106:
The image shows that the last step is a training on the whole dataset, this is the "predicting set" that is the newest and that does not have a testing set.
On that image, there is one "mistake" which shows that this seemingly easy question of taking former labels as features for upcoming labels seems to be hard to be understood. I myself did not see this and posted the image without this remark: The "T&V" is in the past of the "Test". And that would be a wrong validation for a model that shall predict the future, the V must be in the "future" test block (unless you have a dataset that is not dynamically changing over time, like in physics).
You would have to change it to a "walk-forward" model, with the validation set - if at all - split k-fold from the testing set, not from the training set. That would look like this:
See also:
Can / should I use past (e.g. monthly) label columns from a database as features in an ML prediction (no time-series!)? with the "walk-forward" main image,
Splitting Time Series Data into Train/Test/Validation Sets with more insight into this and the comment that brought up the model name "walk-forward".

Overfitting my model over my training data of a single sample

I am trying to over-fit my model over my training data that consists of only a single sample. The training accuracy comes out to be 1.00. But, when I predict the output for my test data which consists of the same single training input sample, the results are not accurate. The model has been trained for 100 epochs and the loss ~ 1e-4.
What could be the possible sources of error?
As mentioned in the comments of your post, it isn't possible to give specific advice without you first providing more details.
Generally speaking, your approach to overfitting a tiny batch (in your case one image) is in essence providing three sanity checks, i.e. that:
backprop is functioning
the weight updates are doing their job
the learning rate is in the correct order of magnitude
As is pointed out by Andrej Karpathy in Lecture 5 of CS231n course at Stanford - "if you can't overfit on a tiny batch size, things are definitely broken".
This means, given your description, that your implementation is incorrect. I would start by checking each of those three points listed above. For example, alter your test somehow by picking several different images or a btach-size of 5 images instead of one. You could also revise your predict function, as that is where there is definitely some discrepancy, given you are getting zero error during training (and so validation?).

Biased initial dataset active learning

Does selecting a biased initial(seed) dataset effect the training and accuracy of the machine built using active learning?
It may. Suppose a seed data sample is heavily biased and model has not seen any examples of a particular cluster. Then while predicting, the model may predict them as belonging to some other class and do this with high certainty (i.e. it has gotten heavily biased). And so it wouldn't feel the need to query labels for such data instances and won't learn them. But when we later test model's results with true labels, it will show low accuracy because these were actually wrong predictions.
Having said that, we also may not desire a 'perfectly uniform' distribution of training data in seed dataset, since if we have a considerable number of outliers or incorrect label by human error or heavily skewed but less probable data cluster which can be undesired, it would hamper the model.
One solution can be 'active cleaning' of such instances, or otherwise, we can allow seed data to have some amount of intentional bias (which can be towards high-density clusters or influential labels or ensemble disagreements or uncertainty of model). We then make sure to account for this introduced bias in the model in our further decision-making process based on the model's results.

Training Random forest with different datasets gives totally different result! Why?

I am working with a dataset which contains 12 attributes including the timestamp and one attribute as the output. Also it has about 4000 rows. Besides there is no duplication in the records. I am trying to train a random forest to predict the output. For this purpose I created two different datasets:
ONE: Randomly chose 80% of data for the training and the other 20% for the testing.
TWO: Sort the dataset based on timestamp and then the first 80% for the training and the last 20% for the testing.
Then I removed the timestamp attribute from the both dataset and used the other 11 attributes for the training and the testing (I am sure the timestamp should not be part of the training).
RESULT: I am getting totally different result for these two datasets. For the first one AUC(Area under the curve) is 85%-90% (I did the experiment several times) and for the second one is 45%-50%.
I do appreciate if someone can help me to know
why I have this huge difference.
Also I need to have the test dataset with the latest timestamps (same as the dataset in the second experiment). Is there anyway to select data from the rest of the dataset for the training to improve the
training.
PS: I already test the random selection from the first 80% of the timestamp and it doesn't improved the performance.
First of all, it is not clear how exactly you're testing. Second, either way, you are doing the testing wrong.
RESULT: I am getting totally different result for these two datasets. For the first one AUC(Area under the curve) is 85%-90% (I did the experiment several times) and for the second one is 45%-50%.
Is this for the training set or the test set? If the test set, that means you have poor generalization.
You are doing it wrong because you are not allowed to tweak your model so that it performs well on the same test set, because it might lead you to a model that does just that, but that generalizes badly.
You should do one of two things:
1. A training-validation-test split
Keep 60% of the data for training, 20% for validation and 20% for testing in a random manner. Train your model so that it performs well on the validation set using your training set. Make sure you don't overfit: the performance on the training set should be close to that on the validation set, if it's very far, you've overfit your training set. Do not use the test set at all at this stage.
Once you're happy, train your selected model on the training set + validation set and test it on the test set you've held out. You should get acceptable performance. You are not allowed to tweak your model further based on the results you get on this test set, if you're not happy, you have to start from scratch.
2. Use cross validation
A popular form is 10-fold cross validation: shuffle your data and split it into 10 groups of equal or almost equal size. For each of the 10 groups, train on the other 9 and test on the remaining one. Average your results on the test groups.
You are allowed to make changes on your model to improve that average score, just run cross validation again after each change (make sure to reshuffle).
Personally I prefer cross validation.
I am guessing what happens is that by sorting based on timestamp, you make your algorithm generalize poorly. Maybe the 20% you keep for testing differ significantly somehow, and your algorithm is not given a chance to capture this difference? In general, your data should be sorted randomly in order to avoid such issues.
Of course, you might also have a buggy implementation.
I would suggest you try cross validation and see what results you get then.

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