How to choose the order of variable elimination in bayes net? - machine-learning

I have the following bayes net with me.
I want to find P(+h|+e). So I have to find A = P(+h,+e) and B = P(+e) to find P(+h|+e). I wanted to follow variable elimination for find the probability. Taking different orders is giving me different probabilities. How should I choose my order of the variable elimination for accurate calculation of P(+h|+e)?
Will it be okay if I calculate P(+h,+u,+e) and eliminating +u instead of finding P(+i, +h, +t, +u, +e) and eliminating +i,+t and +u for finding P(+h,+e)?
How do I calculate P(+e)?

1.P(h|e) is the conditional probability of P(cause | effect ),we are using an effect to infer the cause (diagnostic direction).
P(c| e)P(e) /P(c) = P(h| e)P(e)/P(h) = P(h,e)P(e)/P(h)
So to calculate P(h,e) you would have to calculate joint distribution with all the variables and marginalise each one since they are relevant to the query and evidence variables.
P(+i, +h, +t, +u, +e) would be the correct choice
To calculate P(+e) we would need only its parents, i.e Good test taker and understands the material. So we need to calculate the underlying conditional distribution P(e| t,u) and marginalizing out the variables t, u.
P(+e)
= Sum_t( Sum_u( P(+e, t, u)))
= P( +e | +t,+u)P(+t)P(+u) + P( +e | +t,-u)P(+t)P(-u) + P( +e | -t,+u)P(-t)P(+u)+ P( +e | -t,-u)P(-t)P(-u)

Related

predict conditional mean of one potential outcome in causal forest?

I fit a causal_forest() and used predict() to get estimates of tau(X) = E[Y(1) - Y(0) | X].
How can I get estimates of E[Y(0) | X] alone ?
Thank you !

Estimate a numerical value through Spark MLlib Regression

I'm training a Spark MLlib linear regressor but I believe I didn't understand part of the libraries hands-on usage.
I have 1 feature (NameItem) and one output (Accumulator).
The first one is categorical (Speed, Temp, etc), the second is numerical in double type.
Training set is made of several milions of entries and they are not linearly correlated (I checked with heatmap and correlation indexes).
Issue: I'd like to estimate the Accumulator value given the NameItem value through linear regression, but I think it is not what I'm actually doing.
Question: How can I do It?
I first divided the dataset in training set and data set:
(trainDF, testDF) = df.randomSplit((0.80, 0.20), seed=42)
After that I tried a pipeline approach, as most tutorials show:
1) I indexed NameItem
indexer = StringIndexer(inputCol="NameItem", outputCol="CategorizedItem", handleInvalid = "keep")
2) Then I encoded it
encoderInput = [indexer.getOutputCol()]
encoderOutput = ["EncodedItem"]
encoder = OneHotEncoderEstimator(inputCols=encoderInput, outputCols=encoderOutput)
3) And also assembled it
assemblerInput = encoderOutput
assembler = VectorAssembler(inputCols=assemblerInput, outputCol="features")
After that I continued with the effective training:
lr = LinearRegression(labelCol="Accumulator")
pipeline = Pipeline(stages=[indexer, encoder, assembler, lr])
lrModel = pipeline.fit(trainDF)
That's what I obtain when I apply the prediction on the test set:
predictions = lrModel.transform(testDF).show(5, False)
+--------------+-----------------+---------------+-----------------+-------------------------------+------------------+
|NameItem |Accumulator |CategorizedItem|EncodedItem |features |prediction |
+--------------+-----------------+---------------+-----------------+-------------------------------+------------------+
|Speed |44000.00000000 |265.0 |(688,[265],[1.0])|(689,[265,688],[1.0,44000.0]) |44000.100892495786|
|Speed |245000.00000000 |265.0 |(688,[265],[1.0])|(689,[265,688],[1.0,245000.0]) |245000.09963708033|
|Temp |4473860.00000000 |66.0 |(688,[66],[1.0]) |(689,[66,688],[1.0,4473860.0]) |4473859.874261986 |
|Temp |6065.00000000 |66.0 |(688,[66],[1.0]) |(689,[66,688],[1.0,6065.0]) |6065.097757082314 |
|Temp |10140.00000000 |66.0 |(688,[66],[1.0]) |(689,[66,688],[1.0,10140.0]) |10140.097731630483|
+--------------+-----------------+---------------+-----------------+-------------------------------+------------------+
only showing top 5 rows
How can it be possible that for the same categorical feature (for example Temp) I get 3 different predictions?
Even though they are very close to the expected value, I feel there's something wrong.
How can it be possible that for the same categorical feature (for example Temp) I get 3 different predictions?
It's because somehow your output Accumulator has found its way into features (which of course should not be the case), so the model just "predicts" (essentially copies) this part of the input; that's why the predictions are so "accurate"...
Seems like the VectorAssembler messes things up. Thing is, you don't really need a VectorAssembler here, since in fact you only have a "single" feature (the one-hot encoded sparse vector in EncodedItem). This might be the reason why VectorAssembler behaves like that here (it is asked to "assemble" a single feature), but in any case this would be a bug.
So what I suggest is to get rid of the VectorAssembler, and rename the EncodedItem directly as features, i.e.:
indexer = StringIndexer(inputCol="NameItem", outputCol="CategorizedItem", handleInvalid = "keep")
encoderInput = [indexer.getOutputCol()]
encoderOutput = ["features"] # 1st change
encoder = OneHotEncoderEstimator(inputCols=encoderInput, outputCols=encoderOutput)
lr = LinearRegression(labelCol="Accumulator")
pipeline = Pipeline(stages=[indexer, encoder, lr]) # 2nd change
lrModel = pipeline.fit(trainDF)
UPDATE (after feedback in the comments)
My Spark version Is 1.4.4
Unfortunately I cannot reproduce the issue, simply because I have not access to Spark 1.4.4, which you are using. But I have confirmed that it works OK in the most recent version of Spark 2.4.4, making me even more inclined to believe that there was indeed some bug back in v1.4, which however has subsequently been resolved.
Here is a reproduction in Spark 2.4.4, using some dummy data resembling yours:
spark.version
# '2.4.4'
from pyspark.ml.feature import VectorAssembler, OneHotEncoderEstimator, StringIndexer
from pyspark.ml.regression import LinearRegression
from pyspark.ml import Pipeline
# dummy data resembling yours:
df = spark.createDataFrame([['Speed', 44000],
['Temp', 23000],
['Temp', 5000],
['Speed', 75000],
['Weight', 5300],
['Height', 34500],
['Weight', 6500]],
['NameItem', 'Accumulator'])
df.show()
# result:
+--------+-----------+
|NameItem|Accumulator|
+--------+-----------+
| Speed| 44000|
| Temp| 23000|
| Temp| 5000|
| Speed| 75000|
| Weight| 5300|
| Height| 34500|
| Weight| 6500|
+--------+-----------+
indexer = StringIndexer(inputCol="NameItem", outputCol="CategorizedItem", handleInvalid = "keep")
encoderInput = [indexer.getOutputCol()]
encoderOutput = ["EncodedItem"]
encoder = OneHotEncoderEstimator(inputCols=encoderInput, outputCols=encoderOutput)
assemblerInput = encoderOutput
assembler = VectorAssembler(inputCols=assemblerInput, outputCol="features")
lr = LinearRegression(labelCol="Accumulator")
pipeline = Pipeline(stages=[indexer, encoder, assembler, lr])
lrModel = pipeline.fit(df)
lrModel.transform(df).show() # predicting on the same df, for simplicity
The result of the last transform is
+--------+-----------+---------------+-------------+-------------+------------------+
|NameItem|Accumulator|CategorizedItem| EncodedItem| features| prediction|
+--------+-----------+---------------+-------------+-------------+------------------+
| Speed| 44000| 2.0|(4,[2],[1.0])|(4,[2],[1.0])| 59500.0|
| Temp| 23000| 1.0|(4,[1],[1.0])|(4,[1],[1.0])|14000.000000000004|
| Temp| 5000| 1.0|(4,[1],[1.0])|(4,[1],[1.0])|14000.000000000004|
| Speed| 75000| 2.0|(4,[2],[1.0])|(4,[2],[1.0])| 59500.0|
| Weight| 5300| 0.0|(4,[0],[1.0])|(4,[0],[1.0])| 5900.000000000004|
| Height| 34500| 3.0|(4,[3],[1.0])|(4,[3],[1.0])| 34500.0|
| Weight| 6500| 0.0|(4,[0],[1.0])|(4,[0],[1.0])| 5900.000000000004|
+--------+-----------+---------------+-------------+-------------+------------------+
from where you can see that:
The features now do not include the values of the output variable Accumulator, as it should be indeed; in fact, as I had argued above, features is now identical with EncodedItem, making the VectorAssembler redundant, exactly as we should expect since we only have one single feature.
The prediction values are now identical for the same values of NameItem, again as we would expect them to be, plus that they are less accurate and thus more realistic.
So, most certainly, your issue has to do with the vastly outdated Spark version 1.4.4 you are using. Spark has made leaps since v1.4, and you should seriously consider updating...

arbitrarily weighted moving average (low- and high-pass filters)

Given input signal x (e.g. a voltage, sampled thousand times per second couple of minutes long), I'd like to calculate e.g.
/ this is not q
y[3] = -3*x[0] - x[1] + x[2] + 3*x[3]
y[4] = -3*x[1] - x[2] + x[3] + 3*x[4]
. . .
I'm aiming for variable window length and weight coefficients. How can I do it in q? I'm aware of mavg and signal processing in q and moving sum qidiom
In the DSP world it's called applying filter kernel by doing convolution. Weight coefficients define the kernel, which makes a high- or low-pass filter. The example above calculates the slope from last four points, placing the straight line via least squares method.
Something like this would work for parameterisable coefficients:
q)x:10+sums -1+1000?2f
q)f:{sum x*til[count x]xprev\:y}
q)f[3 1 -1 -3] x
0n 0n 0n -2.385585 1.423811 2.771659 2.065391 -0.951051 -1.323334 -0.8614857 ..
Specific cases can be made a bit faster (running 0 xprev is not the best thing)
q)g:{prev[deltas x]+3*x-3 xprev x}
q)g[x]~f[3 1 -1 -3]x
1b
q)\t:100000 f[3 1 1 -3] x
4612
q)\t:100000 g x
1791
There's a kx white paper of signal processing in q if this area interests you: https://code.kx.com/q/wp/signal-processing/
This may be a bit old but I thought I'd weigh in. There is a paper I wrote last year on signal processing that may be of some value. Working purely within KDB, dependent on the signal sizes you are using, you will see much better performance with a FFT based convolution between the kernel/window and the signal.
However, I've only written up a simple radix-2 FFT, although in my github repo I do have the untested work for a more flexible Bluestein algorithm which will allow for more variable signal length. https://github.com/callumjbiggs/q-signals/blob/master/signal.q
If you wish to go down the path of performing a full manual convolution by a moving sum, then the best method would be to break it up into blocks equal to the kernel/window size (which was based on some work Arthur W did many years ago)
q)vec:10000?100.0
q)weights:30?1.0
q)wsize:count weights
q)(weights$(((wsize-1)#0.0),vec)til[wsize]+) each til count v
32.5931 75.54583 100.4159 124.0514 105.3138 117.532 179.2236 200.5387 232.168.
If your input list not big then you could use the technique mentioned here:
https://code.kx.com/q/cookbook/programming-idioms/#how-do-i-apply-a-function-to-a-sequence-sliding-window
That uses 'scan' adverb. As that process creates multiple lists which might be inefficient for big lists.
Other solution using scan is:
q)f:{sum y*next\[z;x]} / x-input list, y-weights, z-window size-1
q)f[x;-3 -1 1 3;3]
This function also creates multiple lists so again might not be very efficient for big lists.
Other option is to use indices to fetch target items from the input list and perform the calculation. This will operate only on input list.
q) f:{[l;w;i]sum w*l i+til 4} / w- weight, l- input list, i-current index
q) f[x;-3 -1 1 3]#'til count x
This is a very basic function. You can add more variables to it as per your requirements.

Normalize a feature in this table

This has become quite a frustrating question, but I've asked in the Coursera discussions and they won't help. Below is the question:
I've gotten it wrong 6 times now. How do I normalize the feature? Hints are all I'm asking for.
I'm assuming x_2^(2) is the value 5184, unless I am adding the x_0 column of 1's, which they don't mention but he certainly mentions in the lectures when talking about creating the design matrix X. In which case x_2^(2) would be the value 72. Assuming one or the other is right (I'm playing a guessing game), what should I use to normalize it? He talks about 3 different ways to normalize in the lectures: one using the maximum value, another with the range/difference between max and mins, and another the standard deviation -- they want an answer correct to the hundredths. Which one am I to use? This is so confusing.
...use both feature scaling (dividing by the
"max-min", or range, of a feature) and mean normalization.
So for any individual feature f:
f_norm = (f - f_mean) / (f_max - f_min)
e.g. for x2,(midterm exam)^2 = {7921, 5184, 8836, 4761}
> x2 <- c(7921, 5184, 8836, 4761)
> mean(x2)
6676
> max(x2) - min(x2)
4075
> (x2 - mean(x2)) / (max(x2) - min(x2))
0.306 -0.366 0.530 -0.470
Hence norm(5184) = 0.366
(using R language, which is great at vectorizing expressions like this)
I agree it's confusing they used the notation x2 (2) to mean x2 (norm) or x2'
EDIT: in practice everyone calls the builtin scale(...) function, which does the same thing.
It's asking to normalize the second feature under second column using both feature scaling and mean normalization. Therefore,
(5184 - 6675.5) / 4075 = -0.366
Usually we normalize all of them to have zero mean and go between [-1, 1].
You can do that easily by dividing by the maximum of the absolute value and then remove the mean of the samples.
"I'm assuming x_2^(2) is the value 5184" is this because it's the second item in the list and using the subscript _2? x_2 is just a variable identity in maths, it applies to all rows in the list. Note that the highest raw mid-term exam result (i.e. that which is not squared) goes down on the final test and the lowest raw mid-term result increases the most for the final exam result. Theta is a fixed value, a coefficient, so somewhere your normalisation of x_1 and x_2 values must become (EDIT: not negative, less than 1) in order to allow for this behaviour. That should hopefully give you a starting basis, by identifying where the pivot point is.
I had the same problem, in my case the thing was that I was using as average the maximum x2 value (8836) minus minimum x2 value (4761) divided by two, instead of the sum of each x2 value divided by the number of examples.
For the same training set, I got the question as
Q. What is the normalized feature x^(3)_1?
Thus, 3rd training ex and 1st feature makes out to 94 in above table.
Now, normalized form is
x = (x - mean(x's)) / range(x)
Values are :
x = 94
mean(89+72+94+69) / 4 = 81
range = 94 - 69 = 25
Normalized x = (94 - 81) / 25 = 0.52
I'm taking this course at the moment and a really trivial mistake I made first time I answered this question was using comma instead of dot in the answer, since I did by hand and in my country we use comma to denote decimals. Ex:(0,52 instead of 0.52)
So in the second time I tried I used dot and works fine.

RBM for collaborative filtering

My algorithm RBM for collaborative filtering will not converge...
The idea of what I think RBM for collaborative filtering is
initial w , b , c and random at [0,1]
For By User
clamp data -> visible (softmax)
Hidden = sigmoid(b+W*V)
Run Gibbs on Hidden -> Hidden_gibbs
Positive = Hidden*Visible
Hidden -> reconstruct -> reconstruct_visible
Run Gibbs on reconstruct_visible -> reconstruct_visible_gibbs
negative = Hidden_gibbs*reconstruct_visible_gibbs
End for
Update
w = w + (positive-negative)/Number_User
b = b + (visible - reconstruct_visible_gibbs)/Number_User
c = c + (Hidden - Hidden_gibbs)/Number_User
I have seen lots of paper or lecture, and have no idea where is wrong
This is not an easy problem! Your description of the learning procedure looks fine. But, there's a lot of room for mistakes from the description to the actual code. Also, for CF, "vanilla" RBM won't work.
How did you implemented the visible "softmax" units?
Did you train your RBM with a "single-user" dataset, as recommended in the original work[1]?
There are 2 more details about weight updates and prediction procedure that are slightly different from vanilla's RBM
[1] Salakhutdinov http://www.machinelearning.org/proceedings/icml2007/papers/407.pdf

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