Seems to me that when you have a data-set with outliers, those outliers might be caused by not only the features, but by output variable as well.
So for anomaly detection in your training set, why does every example i see on the internet NOT include features appended with output variable?
actually you can approach an anomaly like that, but there are some problems outliers are varied in features that may cause a lot of problems here and most of the advanced anomaly models are the online trainer so it may cause a lot of afford to do this
your model will be too much complicated
I draw an example for you
Related
I have a classification problem and I'm using a logistic regression (I tested it among other models and this one was the best). I look for information from game sites and test if a user has the potential to be a buyer of certain games.
The problem is that lately some sites from which I get this information (and also from where I got the information to train the model) change weekly and, with that, part of the database I use for prediction is "partially" different from the one used for training (with different information for each user, in this case). Since when these sites started to change, the model's predictive ability has dropped considerably.
To solve this, an alternative would be, of course, to retrain the model. It's something we're considering, although we'll have to do it with some frequency given the fact that the sites are changing every couple of weeks, considerably.
other solutions considered was the use of algorithms that could adapt to these changes and, with that, we could retrain the model less frequently.
Two options raised were neural networks to classify or try to adapt some genetic algorithm. However, I have read that genetic algorithms would be very expensive and are not a good option for classification problems, given the fact that they may not converge.
Does anyone have any suggestions for a modeling approach that we can test?
Building a classifier for classical problems, like image classification, is quite straightforward, since by visualization on the image we know the pixel values do contain the information about the target.
However, for the problems in which there is no obvious visualizable pattern, how should we evaluate or to see if the features collected are good enough for the target information? Or if there are some criterion by which we can conclude the collected features does not work at all. Otherwise, we have to try different algorithms or classifiers to verify the predictability of the collected data. Or if there is a thumb rule saying that if apply classical classifiers, like SVM, random forest and adaboost, we cannot get a classifier with a reasonable accuracy (70%) then we should give up and try to find some other more related features.
Or by some high dim visualization tool, like t-sne, if there is no clear pattern presented in some low dim latent space, then we should give up.
First of all, there might be NO features that explain the data well enough. The data may simply be pure noise without any signal. Therefore speaking about "reasonable accuracy" of any level e.g. 70% is improper. For some data sets a model that explains 40 % of its variance will be fantastic.
Having said that, the simplest practical way to evaluate the input features is to calculate correlations between each of them and the target.
Models have their own ways of evaluating features importance.
I was asked in an interview to solve a use case with the help of machine learning. I have to use a Machine Learning algorithm to identify fraud from transactions. My training dataset has lets say 100,200 transactions, out of which 100,000 are legal transactions and 200 are fraud.
I cannot use the dataset as a whole to make the model because it would be a biased dataset and the model would be a very bad one.
Lets say for example I take a sample of 200 good transactions which represent the dataset well(good transactions), and the 200 fraud ones and make the model using this as the training data.
The question I was asked was that how would I scale up the 200 good transactions to the whole data set of 100,000 good records so that my result can be mapped to all types of transactions. I have never solved this kind of a scenario so I did not know how to approach it.
Any kind of guidance as to how I can go about it would be helpful.
This is a general question thrown in an interview. Information about the problem is succinct and vague (we don't know for example the number of features!). First thing you need to ask yourself is What do the interviewer wants me to respond? So, based on this context the answer has to be formulated in a similar general way. This means that we don't have to find 'the solution' but instead give arguments that show that we actually know how to approach the problem instead of solving it.
The problem we have presented with is that the minority class (fraud) is only a ~0.2% of the total. This is obviously a huge imbalance. A predictor that only predicted all cases as 'non fraud' would get a classification accuracy of 99.8%! Therefore, definitely something has to be done.
We will define our main task as a binary classification problem where we want to predict whether a transaction is labelled as positive (fraud) or negative (not fraud).
The first step would be considering what techniques we do have available to reduce imbalance. This can be done either by reducing the majority class (undersampling) or increasing the number of minority samples (oversampling). Both have drawbacks though. The first implies a severe loss of potential useful information from the dataset, while the second can present problems of overfitting. Some techniques to improve overfitting are SMOTE and ADASYN, which use strategies to improve variety in the generation of new synthetic samples.
Of course, cross-validation in this case becomes paramount. Additionally, in case we are finally doing oversampling, this has to be 'coordinated' with the cross-validation approach to ensure we are making the most of these two ideas. Check http://www.marcoaltini.com/blog/dealing-with-imbalanced-data-undersampling-oversampling-and-proper-cross-validation for more details.
Apart from these sampling ideas, when selecting our learner, many ML methods can be trained/optimised for specific metrics. In our case, we do not want to optimise accuracy definitely. Instead, we want to train the model to optimise either ROC-AUC or specifically looking for a high recall even at a loss of precission, as we want to predict all the positive 'frauds' or at least raise an alarm even though some will prove false alarms. Models can adapt internal parameters (thresholds) to find the optimal balance between these two metrics. Have a look at this nice blog for more info about metrics: https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2016/02/7-important-model-evaluation-error-metrics/
Finally, is only a matter of evaluate the model empirically to check what options and parameters are the most suitable given the dataset. Following these ideas does not guarantee 100% that we are going to be able to tackle the problem at hand. But it ensures we are in a much better position to try to learn from data and being able to get rid of those evil fraudsters out there, while perhaps getting a nice job along the way ;)
In this problem you want to classify transactions as good or fraud. However your data is really imbalance. In that you will probably be interested by Anomaly detection. I will let you read all the article for more details but I will quote a few parts in my answer.
I think this will convince you that this is what you are looking for to solve this problem:
Is it not just Classification?
The answer is yes if the following three conditions are met.
You have labeled training data Anomalous and normal classes are
balanced ( say at least 1:5) Data is not autocorrelated. ( That one
data point does not depend on earlier data points. This often breaks
in time series data). If all of above is true, we do not need an
anomaly detection techniques and we can use an algorithm like Random
Forests or Support Vector Machines (SVM).
However, often it is very hard to find training data, and even when
you can find them, most anomalies are 1:1000 to 1:10^6 events where
classes are not balanced.
Now to answer your question:
Generally, the class imbalance is solved using an ensemble built by
resampling data many times. The idea is to first create new datasets
by taking all anomalous data points and adding a subset of normal data
points (e.g. as 4 times as anomalous data points). Then a classifier
is built for each data set using SVM or Random Forest, and those
classifiers are combined using ensemble learning. This approach has
worked well and produced very good results.
If the data points are autocorrelated with each other, then simple
classifiers would not work well. We handle those use cases using time
series classification techniques or Recurrent Neural networks.
I would also suggest another approach of the problem. In this article the author said:
If you do not have training data, still it is possible to do anomaly
detection using unsupervised learning and semi-supervised learning.
However, after building the model, you will have no idea how well it
is doing as you have nothing to test it against. Hence, the results of
those methods need to be tested in the field before placing them in
the critical path.
However you do have a few fraud data to test if your unsupervised algorithm is doing well or not, and if it is doing a good enough job, it can be a first solution that will help gathering more data to train a supervised classifier later.
Note that I am not an expert and this is just what I've come up with after mixing my knowledge and some articles I read recently on the subject.
For more question about machine learning I suggest you to use this stackexchange community
I hope it will help you :)
Deep learning has been a revolution recently and its success is related with the huge amount of data that we can currently manage and the generalization of the GPUs.
So here is the problem I'm facing. I know that deep neural nets have the best performance, there is no doubt about it. However, they have a good performance when the number of training examples is huge. If the number of training examples is low it is better to use a SVM or decision trees.
But what is huge? what is low? In this paper of face recognition (FaceNet by Google) they show the performance vs the flops (which can be related with the number of training examples)
They used between 100M and 200M training examples, which is huge.
My question is:
Is there any method to predict in advance the number of training examples I need to have a good performance in deep learning??? The reason I ask this is because it is a waste of time to manually classify a dataset if the performance is not going to be good.
My question is: Is there any method to predict in advance the number of training examples I need to have a good performance in deep learning??? The reason I ask this is because it is a waste of time to manually classify a dataset if the performance is not going to be good.
The short answer is no. You do not have this kind of knowledge, furthermore you will never have. These kind of problems are impossible to solve, ever.
What you can have are just some general heuristics/empirical knowledge, which will say if it is probable that DL will not work well (as it is possible to predict fail of the method, while nearly impossible to predict the success), nothing more. In current research, DL rarely works well for datasets smaller than hundreads thousands/milions of samples (I do not count MNIST because everything works well on MNIST). Furthermore, DL is heavily studied actually in just two types of problems - NLP and image processing, thus you cannot really extraplate it to any other kind of problems (no free lunch theorem).
Update
Just to make it a bit more clear. What you are asking about is to predit whether given estimator (or set of estimators) will yield a good results given a particular training set. In fact you even restrict just to the size.
The simpliest proof (based on your simplification) is as follows: for any N (sample size) I can construct N-mode (or N^2 to make it even more obvious) distribution which no estimator can reasonably estimate (including deep neural network) and I can construct trivial data with just one label (thus perfect model requires just one sample). End of proof (there are two different answers for the same N).
Now let us assume that we do have access to the training samples (without labels for now) and not just sample size. Now we are given X (training samples) of size N. Again I can construct N-mode labeling yielding impossible to estimate distribution (by anything) and trivial labeling (just a single label!). Again - two different answers for the exact same input.
Ok, so maybe given training samples and labels we can predict what will behave well? Now we cannot manipulate samples nor labels to show that there are no such function. So we have to get back to statistics and what we are trying to answer. We are asking about expected value of loss function over whole probability distribution which generated our training samples. So now again, the whole "clue" is to see, that I can manipulate the underlying distributions (construct many different ones, many of which impossible to model well by deep neural network) and still expect that my training samples come from them. This is what statisticians call the problem of having non-representible sample from a pdf. In particular, in ML, we often relate to this problem with curse of dimensionality. In simple words - in order to estimate the probability well we need enormous number of samples. Silverman shown that even if you know that your data is just a normal distribution and you ask "what is value in 0?" You need exponentialy many samples (as compared to space dimensionality). In practise our distributions are multi-modal, complex and unknown thus this amount is even higher. We are quite safe to say that given number of samples we could ever gather we cannot ever estimate reasonably well distributions with more than 10 dimensions. Consequently - whatever we do to minimize the expected error we are just using heuristics, which connect the empirical error (fitting to the data) with some kind of regularization (removing overfitting, usually by putting some prior assumptions on distributions families). To sum up we cannot construct a method able to distinguish if our model will behave good, because this would require deciding which "complexity" distribution generated our samples. There will be some simple cases when we can do it - and probably they will say something like "oh! this data is so simple even knn will work well!". You cannot have generic tool, for DNN or any other (complex) model though (to be strict - we can have such predictor for very simple models, because they simply are so limited that we can easily check if your data follows this extreme simplicity or not).
Consequently, this boils down nearly to the same question - to actually building a model... thus you will need to try and validate your approach (thus - train DNN to answer if DNN works well). You can use cross validation, bootstraping or anything else here, but all essentialy do the same - build multiple models of your desired type and validate it.
To sum up
I do not claim we will not have a good heuristics, heuristic drive many parts of ML quite well. I only answer if there is a method able to answer your question - and there is no such thing and cannot exist. There can be many rules of thumb, which for some problems (classes of problems) will work well. And we already do have such:
for NLP/2d images you should have ~100,000 samples at least to work with DNN
having lots of unlabeled instances can partially substitute the above number (thus you can have like 30,000 labeled ones + 70,000 unlabeled) with pretty reasonable results
Furthermore this does not mean that given this size of data DNN will be better than kernelized SVM or even linear model. This is exactly what I was refering to earlier - you can easily construct counterexamples of distributions where SVM will work the same or even better despite number of samples. The same applies for any other technique.
Yet still, even if you are just interested if DNN will work well (and not better than others) these are just empirical, trivial heuristics, which are based on at most 10 (!) types of problems. This could be very harmfull to treat these as rules or methods. This are just rough, first intuitions gained through extremely unstructured, random research that happened in last decade.
Ok, so I am lost now... when should I use DL? And the answer is exteremly simple:
Use deep learning only if:
You already tested "shallow" techniques and they do not work well
You have large amounts of data
You have huge computational resources
You have experience with neural networks (this are very tricky and ungreatful models, really)
You have great amount of time to spare, even if you will just get a few % better results as an effect.
We have a dataset with 10,000 manually labeled instances, and a classifier that was trained on all of this data.
The classifier was then evaluated on ALL of this data to obtain a 95% success rate.
What exactly is wrong with this approach? Is it just that the statistic 95% is not very informative in this setup? Can there still be some value in this 95% number? While I understand that, theoretically, it is not a good idea, I don't have enough experience in this area to be sure by myself. Also note that I have neither built nor evaluated the classifier in question.
Common sense aside, could someone give me a very solid, authoritative reference, saying that this setup is somehow wrong?
For example, this page does say
Evaluating model performance with the data used for training is not acceptable in data mining because it can easily generate overoptimistic and overfitted models.
However, this is hardly an authoritative reference. In fact, this quote is plainly wrong, as the evaluation has nothing to do with generating overfitted models. It could generate overoptimistic data scientists who would choose the wrong model, but a particular evaluation strategy does not have anything to do with overfitting models per se.
The problem is the possibility of overfitting. That does not mean that there is no value in the accuracy you reported for that entire data set, as it can be considered an estimate of the upper bound for the performance of the classifier on new data.
It is subjective to say who constitutes a "very solid, authoritative reference"; however Machine Learning by Tom Mitchell (ISBN 978-0070428072) is a widely read and oft-cited text that discusses the problem of overfitting in general and specifically with regard to decision trees and artificial neural networks. In addition to discussion of overfitting, the text also discusses various approaches to the training and validation set approach (e.g., cross-validation).