I have a multiclassification problem that depends on historical data. I am trying LSTM using loss='sparse_categorical_crossentropy'. The train accuracy and loss increase and decrease respectively. But, my test accuracy starts to fluctuate wildly.
What I am doing wrong?
Input data:
X = np.reshape(X, (X.shape[0], X.shape[1], 1))
X.shape
(200146, 13, 1)
My model
# fix random seed for reproducibility
seed = 7
np.random.seed(seed)
# define 10-fold cross validation test harness
kfold = StratifiedKFold(n_splits=10, shuffle=False, random_state=seed)
cvscores = []
for train, test in kfold.split(X, y):
regressor = Sequential()
# Units = the number of LSTM that we want to have in this first layer -> we want very high dimentionality, we need high number
# return_sequences = True because we are adding another layer after this
# input shape = the last two dimensions and the indicator
regressor.add(LSTM(units=50, return_sequences=True, input_shape=(X[train].shape[1], 1)))
regressor.add(Dropout(0.2))
# Extra LSTM layer
regressor.add(LSTM(units=50, return_sequences=True))
regressor.add(Dropout(0.2))
# 3rd
regressor.add(LSTM(units=50, return_sequences=True))
regressor.add(Dropout(0.2))
#4th
regressor.add(LSTM(units=50))
regressor.add(Dropout(0.2))
# output layer
regressor.add(Dense(4, activation='softmax', kernel_regularizer=regularizers.l2(0.001)))
# Compile the RNN
regressor.compile(optimizer='adam', loss='sparse_categorical_crossentropy',metrics=['accuracy'])
# Set callback functions to early stop training and save the best model so far
callbacks = [EarlyStopping(monitor='val_loss', patience=9),
ModelCheckpoint(filepath='best_model.h5', monitor='val_loss', save_best_only=True)]
history = regressor.fit(X[train], y[train], epochs=250, callbacks=callbacks,
validation_data=(X[test], y[test]))
# plot train and validation loss
pyplot.plot(history.history['loss'])
pyplot.plot(history.history['val_loss'])
pyplot.title('model train vs validation loss')
pyplot.ylabel('loss')
pyplot.xlabel('epoch')
pyplot.legend(['train', 'validation'], loc='upper right')
pyplot.show()
# evaluate the model
scores = regressor.evaluate(X[test], y[test], verbose=0)
print("%s: %.2f%%" % (regressor.metrics_names[1], scores[1]*100))
cvscores.append(scores[1] * 100)
print("%.2f%% (+/- %.2f%%)" % (np.mean(cvscores), np.std(cvscores)))
Results:
trainingmodel
Plot
What you are describing here is overfitting. This means your model keeps learning about your training data and doesn't generalize, or other said it is learning the exact features of your training set. This is the main problem you can deal with in deep learning. There is no solution per se. You have to try out different architectures, different hyperparameters and so on.
You can try with a small model that underfits (that is the train acc and validation are at low percentage) and keep increasing your model until it overfits. Then you can play around with the optimizer and other hyperparameters.
By smaller model I mean one with fewer hidden units or fewer layers.
you seem to have too many LSTM layers stacked over and over again which eventually leads to overfitting. Probably should decrease the num of layers.
Your model seems to be overfitting, since the training error keeps on reducing while validation error fails to. Overall, it fails to generalize.
You should try reducing the model complexity by removing some of the LSTM layers. Also, try varying the batch sizes, it will reduce the number of fluctuations in the loss.
You can also consider varying the learning rate.
Related
I created a randomly generated(using numpy, between range 30 and 60) Data of about 12000 points (to
generate an artificial time-series data for more than a year in Time).
Now I am trying to fit that data points in an LSTM model and forecast
based upon that.
The LSTM model i applied,(here data is a single series so n_features = 1, and steps-in and out are for sequence-generation function for time-series, i took both equal to 5. Also the for the activation functions i tried all with both relu, both tanh and 1st tanh & 2nd relu (as shown here))
X, y = split_sequences(data, n_steps_in, n_steps_out)
n_features = X.shape[2]
model = Sequential()
model.add(LSTM(200, activation='tanh', input_shape=(n_steps_in,
n_features)))
model.add(RepeatVector(n_steps_out))
model.add(LSTM(200, activation='relu', return_sequences=True))
model.add(TimeDistributed(Dense(n_features)))
opt = keras.optimizers.Adam(learning_rate=0.05)
model.compile(optimizer=opt, loss='mse')
model.fit(X, y, epochs= n, batch_size=10, verbose=1,
workers=4, use_multiprocessing = True, initial_epoch = 0)
I also tried smoothening of the data-points as they are randomly
distributed (in the predefined boundaries).
and then applied the model on the smoothed data, but still i am getting similar results.
for e.g., In this image showing both the smoothed-training data and the forecasted-prediction from the model
plt.plot(Training_data, 'g')
plt.plot(Pred_Forecasts,'r')
Every time the models are giving straight lines in prediction.
and which is obvious since it is a set of random numbers so model tends to get to a mean value between the upper and lower limits of the data, but still is there any way to generate a somewhat real looking model.
P.S-1 - I have also tried applying different models like prophet, sarima, arima.
But i think i need to find a way to increase the Variance of the prediction, which i am unable to find.
PS-2 - Sorry for the long question i am new to deep-learning so i tried to explain more.
I am trying to do multi class classification with tf keras. I have total 20 labels and total data I have is 63952and I have tried the following code
features = features.astype(float)
labels = df_test["label"].values
encoder = LabelEncoder()
encoder.fit(labels)
encoded_Y = encoder.transform(labels)
dummy_y = np_utils.to_categorical(encoded_Y)
Then
def baseline_model():
model = Sequential()
model.add(Dense(50, input_dim=3, activation='relu'))
model.add(Dense(40, activation='softmax'))
model.add(Dense(30, activation='softmax'))
model.add(Dense(20, activation='softmax'))
model.compile(loss='categorical_crossentropy', optimizer='adam', metrics=['accuracy'])
return model
finally
history = model.fit(data,dummy_y,
epochs=5000,
batch_size=50,
validation_split=0.3,
shuffle=True,
callbacks=[ch]).history
I have a very poor accuray with this. How can I improve that ?
softmax activations in the intermediate layers do not make any sense at all. Change all of them to relu and keep softmax only in the last layer.
Having done that, and should you still be getting unsatisfactory accuracy, experiment with different architectures (different numbers of layers and nodes) with a short number of epochs (say ~ 50), in order to get a feeling of how your model behaves, before going for a full fit with your 5,000 epochs.
You did not give us vital information, but here are some guidelines:
1. Reduce the number of Dense layer - you have a complicated layer with a small amount of data (63k is somewhat small). You might experience overfitting on your train data.
2. Did you check that the test has the same distribution as your train?
3. Avoid using softmax in middle Dense layers - softmax should be used in the final layer, use sigmoid or relu instead.
4. Plot a loss as a function of epoch curve and check if it is reduces - you can then understand if your learning rate is too high or too small.
I am new in Keras and I learned fitting and evaluating the model.
After evaluating the model one can see the actual predictions made by model.
I am wondering Is it also possible to see the predictions during fitting in Keras? Till now I cant find any code doing this.
Since this question doesn't specify "epochs", and since using callbacks may represent extra computation, I don't think it's exactly a duplication.
With tensorflow, you can use a custom training loop with eager execution turned on. A simple tutorial for creating a custom training loop: https://www.tensorflow.org/tutorials/eager/custom_training_walkthrough
Basically you will:
#transform your data in to a Dataset:
dataset = tf.data.Dataset.from_tensor_slices(
(x_train, y_train)).shuffle(some_buffer).batch(batchSize)
#the above is buggy in some versions regarding shuffling, you may need to shuffle
#again between each epoch
#create an optimizer
optimizer = tf.keras.optimizers.Adam()
#create an epoch loop:
for e in range(epochs):
#create a batch loop
for i, (x, y_true) in enumerate(dataset):
#create a tape to record actions
with tf.GradientTape() as tape:
#take the model's predictions
y_pred = model(x)
#calculate loss
loss = tf.keras.losses.binary_crossentropy(y_true, y_pred)
#calculate gradients
gradients = tape.gradient(loss, model.trainable_weights)
#apply gradients
optimizer.apply_gradients(zip(gradients, model.trainable_weights)
You can use the y_pred var for doing anything, including getting its numpy_pred = y_pred.numpy() value.
The tutorial gives some more details about metrics and validation loop.
I am trying to predict the hygrothermal response of a wall, given the interior and exterior climate. Based on literature research, I believe this should be possible with RNN but I have not been able to get good accuracy.
The dataset has 12 input features (time-series of exterior and interior climate data) and 10 output features (time-series of hygrothermal response), both containing hourly values for 10 years. This data was created with hygrothermal simulation software, there is no missing data.
Dataset features:
Dataset targets:
Unlike most time-series prediction problems, I want to predict the response for the full length of the input features time-series at each time-step, rather than the subsequent values of a time-series (eg financial time-series prediction). I have not been able to find similar prediction problems (in similar or other fields), so if you know of one, references are very welcome.
I think this should be possible with RNN, so I am currently using LSTM from Keras. Before training, I preprocess my data the following way:
Discard first year of data, as the first time steps of the hygrothermal response of the wall is influenced by the initial temperature and relative humidity.
Split into training and testing set. Training set contains the first 8 years of data, the test set contains the remaining 2 years.
Normalise training set (zero mean, unit variance) using StandardScaler from Sklearn. Normalise test set analogously using mean an variance from training set.
This results in: X_train.shape = (1, 61320, 12), y_train.shape = (1, 61320, 10), X_test.shape = (1, 17520, 12), y_test.shape = (1, 17520, 10)
As these are long time-series, I use stateful LSTM and cut the time-series as explained here, using the stateful_cut() function. I only have 1 sample, so batch_size is 1. For T_after_cut I have tried 24 and 120 (24*5); 24 appears to give better results. This results in X_train.shape = (2555, 24, 12), y_train.shape = (2555, 24, 10), X_test.shape = (730, 24, 12), y_test.shape = (730, 24, 10).
Next, I build and train the LSTM model as follows:
model = Sequential()
model.add(LSTM(128,
batch_input_shape=(batch_size,T_after_cut,features),
return_sequences=True,
stateful=True,
))
model.addTimeDistributed(Dense(targets)))
model.compile(loss='mean_squared_error', optimizer=Adam())
model.fit(X_train, y_train, epochs=100, batch_size=batch=batch_size, verbose=2, shuffle=False)
Unfortunately, I don't get accurate prediction results; not even for the training set, thus the model has high bias.
The prediction results of the LSTM model for all targets
How can I improve my model? I have already tried the following:
Not discarding the first year of the dataset -> no significant difference
Differentiating the input features time-series (subtract previous value from current value) -> slightly worse results
Up to four stacked LSTM layers, all with the same hyperparameters -> no significant difference in results but longer training time
Dropout layer after LSTM layer (though this is usually used to reduce variance and my model has high bias) -> slightly better results, but difference might not be statistically significant
Am I doing something wrong with the stateful LSTM? Do I need to try different RNN models? Should I preprocess the data differently?
Furthermore, training is very slow: about 4 hours for the model above. Hence I am reluctant to do an extensive hyperparameter gridsearch...
In the end, I managed to solve this the following way:
Using more samples to train instead of only 1 (I used 18 samples to train and 6 to test)
Keep the first year of data, as the output time-series for all samples have the same 'starting point' and the model needs this information to learn
Standardise both input and output features (zero mean, unit variance). I found this improved prediction accuracy and training speed
Use stateful LSTM as described here, but add reset states after epoch (see below for code). I used batch_size = 6 and T_after_cut = 1460. If T_after_cut is longer, training is slower; if T_after_cut is shorter, accuracy decreases slightly. If more samples are available, I think using a larger batch_size will be faster.
use CuDNNLSTM instead of LSTM, this speed up the training time x4!
I found that more units resulted in higher accuracy and faster convergence (shorter training time). Also I found that the GRU is as accurate as the LSTM tough converged faster for the same number of units.
Monitor validation loss during training and use early stopping
The LSTM model is build and trained as follows:
def define_reset_states_batch(nb_cuts):
class ResetStatesCallback(Callback):
def __init__(self):
self.counter = 0
def on_batch_begin(self, batch, logs={}):
# reset states when nb_cuts batches are completed
if self.counter % nb_cuts == 0:
self.model.reset_states()
self.counter += 1
def on_epoch_end(self, epoch, logs={}):
# reset states after each epoch
self.model.reset_states()
return(ResetStatesCallback)
model = Sequential()
model.add(layers.CuDNNLSTM(256, batch_input_shape=(batch_size,T_after_cut ,features),
return_sequences=True,
stateful=True))
model.add(layers.TimeDistributed(layers.Dense(targets, activation='linear')))
optimizer = RMSprop(lr=0.002)
model.compile(loss='mean_squared_error', optimizer=optimizer)
earlyStopping = EarlyStopping(monitor='val_loss', min_delta=0.005, patience=15, verbose=1, mode='auto')
ResetStatesCallback = define_reset_states_batch(nb_cuts)
model.fit(X_dev, y_dev, epochs=n_epochs, batch_size=n_batch, verbose=1, shuffle=False, validation_data=(X_eval,y_eval), callbacks=[ResetStatesCallback(), earlyStopping])
This gave me very statisfying accuracy (R2 over 0.98):
This figure shows the temperature (left) and relative humidity (right) in the wall over 2 years (data not used in training), prediction in red and true output in black. The residuals show that the error is very small and that the LSTM learns to capture the long-term dependencies to predict the relative humidity.
I am attempting to train an ANN on time series data in Keras. I have three vectors of data that are broken into scrolling window sequences (i.e. for vector l).
np.array([l[i:i+window_size] for i in range( len(l) - window_size)])
The target vector is similarly windowed so the neural net output is a prediction of the target vector for the next window_size number of time steps. All the data is normalized with a min-max scaler. It is fed into the neural network as a shape=(nb_samples, window_size, 3). Here is a plot of the 3 input vectors.
The only output I've managed to muster from the ANN is the following plot. Target vector in blue, predictions in red (plot is zoomed in to make the prediction pattern legible). Prediction vectors are plotted at window_size intervals so each one of the repeated patterns is one prediction from the net.
I've tried many different model architectures, number of epochs, activation functions, short and fat networks, skinny, tall. This is my current one (it's a little out there).
Conv1D(64,4, input_shape=(None,3)) ->
Conv1d(32,4) ->
Dropout(24) ->
LSTM(32) ->
Dense(window_size)
But nothing I try will affect the neural net from outputting this repeated pattern. I must be misunderstanding something about time-series or LSTMs in Keras. But I'm very lost at this point so any help is greatly appreciated. I've attached the full code at this repository.
https://github.com/jaybutera/dat-toy
I played with your code a little and I think I have a few suggestions for getting you on the right track. The code doesn't seem to match your graphs exactly, but I assume you've tweaked it a bit since then. Anyway, there are two main problems:
The biggest problem is in your data preparation step. You basically have the data shapes backwards, in that you have a single timestep of input for X and a timeseries for Y. Your input shape is (18830, 1, 8), when what you really want is (18830, 30, 8) so that the full 30 timesteps are fed into the LSTM. Otherwise the LSTM is only operating on one timestep and isn't really useful. To fix this, I changed the line in common.py from
X = X.reshape(X.shape[0], 1, X.shape[1])
to
X = windowfy(X, winsize)
Similarly, the output data should probably be only 1 value, from what I've gathered of your goals from the plotting function. There are certainly some situations where you want to predict a whole timeseries, but I don't know if that's what you want in this case. I changed Y_train to use fuels instead of fuels_w so that it only had to predict one step of the timeseries.
Training for 100 epochs might be way too much for this simple network architecture. In some cases when I ran it, it looked like there was some overfitting going on. Observing the decrease of loss in the network, it seems like maybe only 3-4 epochs are needed.
Here is the graph of predictions after 3 training epochs with the adjustments I mentioned. It's not a great prediction, but it looks like it's on the right track now at least. Good luck to you!
EDIT: Example predicting multiple output timesteps:
from sklearn import datasets, preprocessing
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats
from keras import models, layers
INPUT_WINDOW = 10
OUTPUT_WINDOW = 5 # Predict 5 steps of the output variable.
# Randomly generate some regression data (not true sequential data; samples are independent).
np.random.seed(11798)
X, y = datasets.make_regression(n_samples=1000, n_features=4, noise=.1)
# Rescale 0-1 and convert into windowed sequences.
X = preprocessing.MinMaxScaler().fit_transform(X)
y = preprocessing.MinMaxScaler().fit_transform(y.reshape(-1, 1))
X = np.array([X[i:i + INPUT_WINDOW] for i in range(len(X) - INPUT_WINDOW)])
y = np.array([y[i:i + OUTPUT_WINDOW] for i in range(INPUT_WINDOW - OUTPUT_WINDOW,
len(y) - OUTPUT_WINDOW)])
print(np.shape(X)) # (990, 10, 4) - Ten timesteps of four features
print(np.shape(y)) # (990, 5, 1) - Five timesteps of one features
# Construct a simple model predicting output sequences.
m = models.Sequential()
m.add(layers.LSTM(20, activation='relu', return_sequences=True, input_shape=(INPUT_WINDOW, 4)))
m.add(layers.LSTM(20, activation='relu'))
m.add(layers.RepeatVector(OUTPUT_WINDOW))
m.add(layers.LSTM(20, activation='relu', return_sequences=True))
m.add(layers.wrappers.TimeDistributed(layers.Dense(1, activation='sigmoid')))
print(m.summary())
m.compile(optimizer='adam', loss='mse')
m.fit(X[:800], y[:800], batch_size=10, epochs=60) # Train on first 800 sequences.
preds = m.predict(X[800:], batch_size=10) # Predict the remaining sequences.
print('Prediction:\n' + str(preds[0]))
print('Actual:\n' + str(y[800]))
# Correlation should be around r = .98, essentially perfect.
print('Correlation: ' + str(stats.pearsonr(y[800:].flatten(), preds.flatten())[0]))