I feel like this might have been asked but I don't know how to search it. Basically I'm building a binary classifier using Random Forest, and there are many, many more positive results than negative ones (2k vs ~20). The accuracy is of course very good, since the test set usually has 0-1 negative examples and over a thousand positive ones. If machine learning is still viable for this situation, what is the best approach to handling such a small number of negative cases? Or is the data just useless?
As you have mentioned, your dataset has the imbalanced distribution of the classes(2k vs ~20). This distribution does not allow you to build the predictive model as the model treat your rare event (negative results) as the random noise and couldn't predict well for the new data set.
You may have to upsample the rare event to make it balanced in the distribution before building any predictive model. You can still try a random forest model which works well for the imbalanced dataset as well but I don't think 20 vs ~2k distributions work well in the random forest as well. You can get the more detailed information about dealing with the imbalanced data distribution, you can follow this link: https://elitedatascience.com/imbalanced-classes
The sample code to upsample your data would be something like this:
from sklearn.utils import resample
# Separate majority and minority classes
df_minority = df[df.pos_neg==0] #I classified negative class as '0'
df_majority = df[df.pos_neg==1]
# Upsample minority class
df_minority_upsampled = resample(df_minority,
replace=True, # sample with replacement
n_samples=11828, # to match majority class
random_state=123) # reproducible results
# Combine majority class with upsampled minority class
df_upsampled = pd.concat([df_majority, df_minority_upsampled])
# Display new class counts
df_upsampled.value_counts()
# 1 2000
# 0 2000
Related
I'm fairly new to data analysis and machine learning. I've been carrying out some KNN classification analysis on a breast cancer dataset in python's sklearn module. I have the following code which attemps to find the optimal k for classification of a target variable.
from sklearn.datasets import load_breast_cancer
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
from sklearn.neighbors import KNeighborsClassifier
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
breast_cancer_data = load_breast_cancer()
training_data, validation_data, training_labels, validation_labels = train_test_split(breast_cancer_data.data, breast_cancer_data.target, test_size = 0.2, random_state = 40)
results = []
for k in range(1,101):
classifier = KNeighborsClassifier(n_neighbors = k)
classifier.fit(training_data, training_labels)
results.append(classifier.score(validation_data, validation_labels))
k_list = range(1,101)
plt.plot(k_list, results)
plt.ylim(0.85,0.99)
plt.xlabel("k")
plt.ylabel("Accuracy")
plt.title("Breast Cancer Classifier Accuracy")
plt.show()
The code loops through 1 to 100 and generates 100 KNN models with 'k' set to incremental values in the range 1 to 100. The performance of each of those models is saved to a list and a plot is generated showing 'k' on the x-axis and model performance on the y-axis.
The problem I have is that when I change the random_state parameter when spliting the data into training and testing partitions this results in completely different plots indicating varying model performance for different 'k'values for different dataset partitions.
For me this makes it difficult to decide which 'k' is optimal as the algorithm performs differently for different 'k's using different random states. Surely this doesn't mean that, for this particular dataset, 'k' is arbitrary? Can anyone help shed some light on this?
Thanks in anticipation
This is completely expected. When you do the train-test-split, you are effectively sampling from your original population. This means that when you fit a model, any statistic (such as a model parameter estimate, or a model score) will it self be a sample estimate taken from some distribution. What you really want is a confidence interval around this score and the easiest way to get that is to repeat the sampling and remeasure the score.
But you have to be very careful how you do this. Here are some robust options:
1. Cross Validation
The most common solution to this problem is to use k-fold cross-validation. In order not to confuse this k with the k from knn I'm going to use a capital for cross-validation (but bear in mind this is not normal nomenclature) This is a scheme to do the suggestion above but without a target leak. Instead of creating many splits at random, you split the data into K parts (called folds). You then train K models each time on K-1 folds of the data leaving aside a different fold as your test set each time. Now each model is independent and without a target leak. It turns out that the mean of whatever success score you use from these K models on their K separate test sets is a good estimate for the performance of training a model with those hyperparameters on the whole set. So now you should get a more stable score for each of your different values of k (small k for knn) and you can choose a final k this way.
Some extra notes:
Accuracy is a bad measure for classification performance. Look at scores like precision vs recall or AUROC or f1.
Don't try program CV yourself, use sklearns GridSearchCV
If you are doing any preprocessing on your data that calculates some sort of state using the data, that needs to be done on only the training data in each fold. For example if you are scaling your data you can't include the test data when you do the scaling. You need to fit (and transform) the scaler on the training data and then use that same scaler to transform on your test data (don't fit again). To get this to work in CV you need to use sklearn Pipelines. This is very important, make sure you understand it.
You might get more stability if you stratify your train-test-split based on the output class. See the stratify argument on train_test_split.
Note the CV is the industry standard and that's what you should do, but there are other options:
2. Bootstrapping
You can read about this in detail in introduction to statistical learning section 5.2 (pg 187) with examples in section 5.3.4.
The idea is to take you training set and draw a random sample from it with replacement. This means you end up with some repeated records. You take this new training set, train and model and then score it on the records that didn't make it into the bootstrapped sample (often called out-of-bag samples). You repeat this process multiple times. You can now get a distribution of your score (e.g. accuracy) which you can use to choose your hyper-parameter rather than just the point estimate you were using before.
3. Making sure you test set is representative of your validation set
Jeremy Howard has a very interesting suggestion on how to calibrate your validation set to be a good representation of your test set. You only need to watch about 5 minutes from where that link starts. The idea is to split into three sets (which you should be doing anyway to choose a hyper parameter like k), train a bunch of very different but simple quick models on your train set and then score them on both your validation and test set. It is OK to use the test set here because these aren't real models that will influence your final model. Then plot the validation scores vs the test scores. They should fall roughly on a straight line (the y=x line). If they do, this means the validation set and test set are both either good or bad, i.e. performance in the validation set is representative of performance in the test set. If they don't fall on this straight line, it means the model scores you get from you validation set are not indicative of the score you'll get on unseen data and thus you can't use that split to train a sensible model.
4. Get a larger data set
This is obviously not very practical for your situation but I thought I'd mention it for completeness. As your sample size increases, your standard error drops (i.e. you can get tighter bounds on your confidence intervals). But you'll need more training and more test data. While you might not have access to that here, it's worth keeping in mind for real world situations where you can assess the trade-off of the cost of gathering new data vs the desired accuracy in assessing your model performance (and probably the performance itself too).
This "behavior" is to be expected. Of course you get different results, when training and test is split differently.
You can approach the problem statistically, by repeating each 'k' several times with new train-validation-splits. Then take the median performance for each k. Or even better: look at the performance distribution and the median. A narrow performance distribution for a given 'k' is also a good sign that the 'k' is chosen well.
Afterwards you can use the test set to test your model
Is it possible to quantify the importance of variables in figuring out the probability of an observation falling into one class. Something similar to Logistic regression.
For example:
If I have the following independent variables
1) Number of cats the person has
2) Number of dogs a person has
3) Number of chickens a person has
With my dependent variable being: Whether a person is a part of PETA or not
Is it possible to say something like "if the person adopts one more cat than his existing range of animals, his probability of being a part of PETA increases by 0.12"
I am currently using the following methodology to reach this particular scenario:
1) Build a random forest model using the training data
2) Predict the customer's probability to fall in one particular class(Peta vs non Peta)
3) Artificially increase the number of cats owned by each observation by 1
4) Predict the customer's new probability to fall in one of the two classes
5) The average change between (4)'s probability and (2)'s probability is the average increase in a person's probability if he has adopted a cat.
Does this make sense? Is there any flaw in the methodology that I haven't thought of? Is there a better way of doing the same ?
If you're using scikitlearn, you can easily do this by accessing the feature_importance_ property of the fitted RandomForestClassifier. According to SciKitLearn:
The relative rank (i.e. depth) of a feature used as a decision node in
a tree can be used to assess the relative importance of that feature
with respect to the predictability of the target variable. Features
used at the top of the tree contribute to the final prediction
decision of a larger fraction of the input samples. The expected
fraction of the samples they contribute to can thus be used as an
estimate of the relative importance of the features.
By averaging
those expected activity rates over several randomized trees one can
reduce the variance of such an estimate and use it for feature
selection.
The property feature_importance_ stores the average depth of each feature among the trees.
Here's an example. Let's start by importing the necessary libraries.
# using this for some array manipulations
import numpy as np
# of course we're going to plot stuff!
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
# dummy iris dataset
from sklearn.datasets import load_iris
#random forest classifier
from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier
Once we have these, we're going to load the dummy dataset, define a classification model and fit the data to the model.
data = load_iris()
# we're gonna use 100 trees
forest = RandomForestClassifier(n_estimators = 100)
# fit data to model by passing features and labels
forest.fit(data.data, data.target)
Now we can use the Feature Importance Property to get a score of each feature, based on how well it is able to classify the data into different targets.
# find importances of each feature
importances = forest.feature_importances_
# find the standard dev of each feature to assess the spread
std = np.std([tree.feature_importances_ for tree in forest.estimators_],
axis=0)
# find sorting indices of importances (descending)
indices = np.argsort(importances)[::-1]
# Print the feature ranking
print("Feature ranking:")
for f in range(data.data.shape[1]):
print("%d. feature %d (%f)" % (f + 1, indices[f], importances[indices[f]]))
Feature ranking:
1. feature 2 (0.441183)
2. feature 3 (0.416197)
3. feature 0 (0.112287)
4. feature 1 (0.030334)
Now we can plot the importance of each feature as a bar graph and decide if it's worth keeping them all. We also plot the error bars to assess the significance.
plt.figure()
plt.title("Feature importances")
plt.bar(range(data.data.shape[1]), importances[indices],
color="b", yerr=std[indices], align="center")
plt.xticks(range(data.data.shape[1]), indices)
plt.xlim([-1, data.data.shape[1]])
plt.show()
Bar graph of feature importances
I apologize. I didn't catch the part where you mention what kind of statement you're trying to make. I'm assuming your response variable is either 1 or zero. You could try something like this:
Fit a linear regression model over the data. This won't really give you the most accurate fit, but it will be robust to get the information you're looking for.
Find the response of the model with the original inputs. (It most likely won't be ones or zeros)
Artificially change the inputs, and find the difference in the outputs of the original data and modified data, like you suggested in your question.
Try it out with a logistic regression as well. It really depends on your data and how it is distributed to find what kind of regression will work best. You definitely have to use a regression to find the change in probability with change in input.
You can even try a single layer neural network with a regression/linear output layer to do the same thing. Add layers or non-linear activation functions if the data is less likely to be linear.
Cheers!
I have data set for classification problem. I have in total 50 classes.
Class1: 10,000 examples
Class2: 10 examples
Class3: 5 examples
Class4: 35 examples
.
.
.
and so on.
I tried to train my classifier using SVM ( both linear and Gaussian kernel). My accurate is very bad on test data 65 and 72% respectively. Now I am thinking to go for a neural network. Do you have any suggestion for any machine learning model and algorithm for large imbalanced data? It would be extremely helpful to me
You should provide more information about the data set features and the class distribution, this would help others to advice you.
In any case, I don't think a neural network fits here as this data set is too small for it.
Assuming 50% or more of the samples are of class 1 then I would first start by looking for a classifier that differentiates between class 1 and non-class 1 samples (binary classification). This classifier should outperform a naive classifier (benchmark) which randomly chooses a classification with a prior corresponding to the training set class distribution.
For example, assuming there are 1,000 samples, out of which 700 are of class 1, then the benchmark classifier would classify a new sample as class 1 in a probability of 700/1,000=0.7 (like an unfair coin toss).
Once you found a classifier with good accuracy, the next phase can be classifying the non-class 1 classified samples as one of the other 49 classes, assuming these classes are more balanced then I would start with RF, NB and KNN.
There are multiple ways to handle with imbalanced datasets, you can try
Up sampling
Down Sampling
Class Weights
I would suggest either Up sampling or providing class weights to balance it
https://towardsdatascience.com/5-techniques-to-work-with-imbalanced-data-in-machine-learning-80836d45d30c
You should think about your performance metric, don't use Accuracy score as your performance metric , You can use Log loss or any other suitable metric
https://machinelearningmastery.com/failure-of-accuracy-for-imbalanced-class-distributions/
From my experience the most successful ways to deal with unbalanced classes are :
Changing distribiution of inputs: 20000 samples (the approximate number of examples which you have) is not a big number so you could change your dataset distribiution simply by using every sample from less frequent classes multiple times. Depending on a number of classes you could set the number of examples from them to e.g. 6000 or 8000 each in your training set. In this case remember to not change distribiution on test and validation set.
Increase the time of training: in case of neural networks, when changing distribiution of your input is impossible I strongly advise you trying to learn network for quite a long time (e.g. 1000 epochs). In this case you have to remember about regularisation. I usually use dropout and l2 weight regulariser with their parameters learnt by random search algorithm.
Reduce the batch size: In neural networks case reducing a batch size might lead to improving performance on less frequent classes.
Change your loss function: using MAPE insted of Crossentropy may also improve accuracy on less frequent classes.
Feel invited to test different combinations of approaches shown by e.g. random search algorithm.
Data-level methods:
Undersampling runs the risk of losing important data from removing data. Oversampling runs the risk of overfitting on training data, especially if the added copies of the minority class are replicas of existing data. Many sophisticated sampling techniques have been developed to mitigate these risks.
One such technique is two-phase learning. You first train your model on the resampled data. This resampled data can be achieved by randomly undersampling large classes until each class has only N instances. You then fine-tune your model on the original data.
Another technique is dynamic sampling: oversample the low-performing classes and undersample the high-performing classes during the training process. Introduced by Pouyanfar et al., the method aims to show the model less of what it has already learned and more of what it has not.
Algorithm-level methods
Cost-sensitive learning
Class-balanced loss
Focal loss
References:
esigning Machine Learning Systems
Survey on deep learning with class imbalance
I am interested in any tips on how to train a set with a very limited positive set and a large negative set.
I have about 40 positive examples (quite lengthy articles about a particular topic), and about 19,000 negative samples (most drawn from the sci-kit learn newsgroups dataset). I also have about 1,000,000 tweets that I could work with.. negative about the topic I am trying to train on. Is the size of the negative set versus the positive going to negatively influence training a classifier?
I would like to use cross-validation in sci-kit learn. Do I need to break this into train / test-dev / test sets? Is know there are some pre-built libraries in sci-kit. Any implementation examples that you recommend or have used previously would be helpful.
Thanks!
The answer to your first question is yes, the amount by which it will affect your results depends on the algorithm. My advive would be to keep an eye on the class-based statistics such as recall and precision (found in classification_report).
For RandomForest() you can look at this thread which discusses
the sample weight parameter. In general sample_weight is what
you're looking for in scikit-learn.
For SVM's have a look at either this example or this
example.
For NB classifiers, this should be handled implicitly by Bayes
rule, however in practice you may see some poor performances.
For you second question it's up for discussion, personally I break my data into a training and test split, perform cross validation on the training set for parameter estimation, retrain on all the training data and then test on my test set. However the amount of data you have may influence the way you split your data (more data means more options).
You could probably use Random Forest for your classification problem. There are basically 3 parameters to deal with data imbalance. Class Weight, Samplesize and Cutoff.
Class Weight-The higher the weight a class is given, the more its error rate is decreased.
Samplesize- Oversample the minority class to improve class imbalance while sampling the defects for each tree[not sure if Sci-kit supports this, used to be param in R)
Cutoff- If >x% trees vote for the minority class, classify it as minority class. By default x is 1/2 in Random forest for 2-class problem. You can set it to a lower value for the minority class.
Check out balancing predict error at https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~breiman/RandomForests/cc_home.htm
For the 2nd question if you are using Random Forest, you do not need to keep separate train/validation/test set. Random Forest does not choose any parameters based on a validation set, so validation set is un-necessary.
Also during the training of Random Forest, the data for training each individual tree is obtained by sampling by replacement from the training data, thus each training sample is not used for roughly 1/3 of the trees. We can use the votes of these 1/3 trees to predict the out of box probability of the Random forest classification. Thus with OOB accuracy you just need a training set, and not validation or test data to predict performance on unseen data. Check Out of Bag error at https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~breiman/RandomForests/cc_home.htm for further study.
How should I set my gamma and Cost parameters in libSVM when I am using an imbalanced dataset that consists of 75% 'true' labels and 25% 'false' labels? I'm getting a constant error of having all the predicted labels set on 'True' due to the data imbalance.
If the issue isn't with libSVM, but with my dataset, how should I handle this imbalance from a Theoretical Machine Learning standpoint? *The number of features I'm using is between 4-10 and I have a small set of 250 data points.
Classes imbalance has nothing to do with selection of C and gamma, to deal with this issue you should use the class weighting scheme which is avaliable in for example scikit-learn package (built on libsvm)
Selection of best C and gamma is performed using grid search with cross validation. You should try vast range of values here, for C it is reasonable to choose values between 1 and 10^15 while a simple and good heuristic of gamma range values is to compute pairwise distances between all your data points and select gamma according to the percentiles of this distribution - think about putting in each point a gaussian distribution with variance equal to 1/gamma - if you select such gamma that this distribution overlaps will many points you will get very "smooth" model, while using small variance leads to the overfitting.
Imbalanced data sets can be tackled in various ways. Class balance has no effect on kernel parameters such as gamma for the RBF kernel.
The two most popular approaches are:
Use different misclassification penalties per class, this basically means changing C. Typically the smallest class gets weighed higher, a common approach is npos * wpos = nneg * wneg. LIBSVM allows you to do this using its -wX flags.
Subsample the overrepresented class to obtain an equal amount of positives and negatives and proceed with training as you traditionally would for a balanced set. Take note that you basically ignore a large chunk of data this way, which is intuitively a bad idea.
I know this has been asked some time ago, but I would like to answer it since you might find my answer useful.
As others have mentioned, you might want to consider using different weights for the minority classes or using different misclassification penalties. However, there is a more clever way of dealing with the imbalanced datasets.
You can use the SMOTE (Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique) algorithm to generate synthesized data for the minority class. It is a simple algorithm that can deal with some imbalance datasets pretty well.
In each iteration of the algorithm, SMOTE considers two random instances of the minority class and add an artificial example of the same class somewhere in between. The algorithm keeps injecting the dataset with the samples until the two classes become balanced or some other criteria(e.g. add certain number of examples). Below you can find a picture describing what the algorithm does for a simple dataset in 2D feature space.
Associating weight with the minority class is a special case of this algorithm. When you associate weight $w_i$ with instance i, you are basically adding the extra $w_i - 1$ instances on top of the instance i!
What you need to do is to augment your initial dataset with the samples created by this algorithm, and train the SVM with this new dataset. You can also find many implementation online in different languages like Python and Matlab.
There have been other extensions of this algorithm, I can point you to more materials if you want.
To test the classifier you need to split the dataset into test and train, add synthetic instances to the train set (DO NOT ADD ANY TO THE TEST SET), train the model on the train set, and finally test it on the test set. If you consider the generated instances when you are testing you will end up with a biased(and ridiculously higher) accuracy and recall.