I want to extract the p value of the coefficients of my garch model.
Here is an replicable exemple:
library(rugarch)
y<-rnorm(1:100)
spec <- ugarchspec(variance.model = list(model = "sGARCH", garchOrder = c(1, 1),
submodel = NULL, external.regressors = NULL, variance.targeting = FALSE),
mean.model = list(armaOrder = c(1, 0), external.regressors = NULL, include.mean=T), distribution.model ="norm")
garch <- ugarchfit(spec=spec, data = y , solver = 'hybrid')
Results gave me:
Optimal Parameters
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
mu 0.091862 0.083258 1.10334 0.269880
ar1 -0.165456 0.098624 -1.67764 0.093418
omega 0.033234 0.050870 0.65332 0.513550
alpha1 0.041305 0.051530 0.80158 0.422793
beta1 0.920773 0.079976 11.51312 0.000000
I can extract the coef by using:
coef(garch)
But does anyone know how can I extract the pvalue?
Thanks!
you can extract the a matrix of coefficients with:
garch#fit$robust.matcoef (or garch#fit$matcoef but generally speaking robust errors preferred)
Then normal matrix indexing will allow you to retrieve values of interest, such that for retrieving p-values, you will want the retrieve the fourth column as follows:
garch#fit$robust.matcoef[,4]
Hope this helps.
Related
library(MLmetrics)
library(caret)
library(doSNOW)
library(ranger)
data is called as the "bank additional" full from this enter link description here and then following code to generate data1
library(VIM)
data1<-hotdeck(data,variable=c('job','marital','education','default','housing','loan'),domain_var = "y",imp_var=FALSE)
#converting the categorical variables to factors as they should be
library(magrittr)
data1%<>%
mutate_at(colnames(data1)[grepl('factor|logical|character',sapply(data1,class))],factor)
Now, splitting
library(caret)
#spliting data into train test 70/30
set.seed(1234)
trainIndex<-createDataPartition(data1$y,p=0.7,times = 1,list = F)
train<-data1[trainIndex,-11]
test<-data1[-trainIndex,-11]
levels(train$y)
train$y = as.factor(train$y)
# train$y = factor(train$y,levels = c("yes","no"))
# train$y = relevel(train$y,ref="yes")
Here, i got an idea of how to create F1 metric in Training Model in Caret Using F1 Metric
and using fbeta score formula i created f1_val; now i can't understand what lev,obs and pred are indicating . in my train dataset only column y showing data$obs , but no data$pred . So, is following error is due to this? and how to rectify this?
f1 <- function (data, lev = NULL, model = NULL) {
precision <- precision(data$obs,data$pred)
recall <- sensitivity(data$obs,data$pred)
f1_val <- (17*precision*recall)/(16*precision+recall)
names(f1_val) <- c("F1")
f1_val
}
tgrid <- expand.grid(
.mtry = 1:5,
.splitrule = "gini",
.min.node.size = seq(1,500,75)
)
model_caret <- train(train$y~., data = train,
method = "ranger",
trControl = trainControl(method="cv",
number = 2,
verboseIter = T,
classProbs = T,
summaryFunction = f1),
tuneGrid = tgrid,
num.trees = 500,
importance = "impurity",
metric = "F1")
After running for 3/4 minutes we get following :
Aggregating results
Selecting tuning parameters
Fitting mtry = 5, splitrule = gini, min.node.size = 1 on full training set
but error:
Error in `[.data.frame`(data, , all.vars(Terms), drop = FALSE) :
undefined columns selected
Also when running model_caret we get,
Error: object 'model_caret' not found
Kindly help. Thanks in advance
I am trying to use reinforcement learning in julia to teach a car that is constantly being accelerated backwards (but with a positive initial velocity) to apply brakes so that it gets as close to a target distance as possible before moving backwards.
To do this, I am making use of POMDPs.jl and crux.jl which has many solvers (I'm using DQN). I will list what I believe to be the relevant parts of the script first, and then more of it towards the end.
To define the MDP, I set the initial position, velocity, and force from the brakes as a uniform distribution over some values.
#with_kw struct SliderMDP <: MDP{Array{Float32}, Array{Float32}}
x0 = Distributions.Uniform(0., 80.)# Distribution to sample initial position
v0 = Distributions.Uniform(0., 25.) # Distribution to sample initial velocity
d0 = Distributions.Uniform(0., 2.) # Distribution to sample brake force
...
end
My state holds the values of (position, velocity, brake force), and the initial state is given as:
function POMDPs.initialstate(mdp::SliderMDP)
ImplicitDistribution((rng) -> Float32.([rand(rng, mdp.x0), rand(rng, mdp.v0), rand(rng, mdp.d0)]))
end
Then, I set up my DQN solver using crux.jl and called a function to solve for the policy
solver_dqn = DQN(π=Q_network(), S=s, N=30000)
policy_dqn = solve(solver_dqn, mdp)
calling solve() gives me the error MethodError: no method matching logpdf(::Distributions.Categorical{Float64, Vector{Float64}}, ::Nothing). I am quite sure that this comes from the initial state sampling, but I am not sure why or how to fix it. I have only been learning RL from various books and online lectures for a very short time, so any help regarding the error or my the model I set up (or anything else I'm oblivious to) would be appreciated.
More comprehensive code:
Packages:
using POMDPs
using POMDPModelTools
using POMDPPolicies
using POMDPSimulators
using Parameters
using Random
using Crux
using Flux
using Distributions
Rest of it:
#with_kw struct SliderMDP <: MDP{Array{Float32}, Array{Float32}}
x0 = Distributions.Uniform(0., 80.)# Distribution to sample initial position
v0 = Distributions.Uniform(0., 25.) # Distribution to sample initial velocity
d0 = Distributions.Uniform(0., 2.) # Distribution to sample brake force
m::Float64 = 1.
tension::Float64 = 3.
dmax::Float64 = 2.
target::Float64 = 80.
dt::Float64 = .05
γ::Float32 = 1.
actions::Vector{Float64} = [-.1, 0., .1]
end
function POMDPs.gen(env::SliderMDP, s, a, rng::AbstractRNG = Random.GLOBAL_RNG)
x, ẋ, d = s
if x >= env.target
a = .1
end
if d+a >= env.dmax || d+a <= 0
a = 0.
end
force = (d + env.tension) * -1
ẍ = force/env.m
# Simulation
x_ = x + env.dt * ẋ
ẋ_ = ẋ + env.dt * ẍ
d_ = d + a
sp = vcat(x_, ẋ_, d_)
reward = abs(env.target - x) * -1
return (sp=sp, r=reward)
end
function POMDPs.initialstate(mdp::SliderMDP)
ImplicitDistribution((rng) -> Float32.([rand(rng, mdp.x0), rand(rng, mdp.v0), rand(rng, mdp.d0)]))
end
POMDPs.isterminal(mdp::SliderMDP, s) = s[2] <= 0
POMDPs.discount(mdp::SliderMDP) = mdp.γ
mdp = SliderMDP();
s = state_space(mdp); # Using Crux.jl
function Q_network()
layer1 = Dense(3, 64, relu)
layer2 = Dense(64, 64, relu)
layer3 = Dense(64, length(3))
return DiscreteNetwork(Chain(layer1, layer2, layer3), [-.1, 0, .1])
end
solver_dqn = DQN(π=Q_network(), S=s, N=30000) # Using Crux.jl
policy_dqn = solve(solver_dqn, mdp) # Error comes here
Stacktrace:
policy_dqn
MethodError: no method matching logpdf(::Distributions.Categorical{Float64, Vector{Float64}}, ::Nothing)
Closest candidates are:
logpdf(::Distributions.DiscreteNonParametric, !Matched::Real) at C:\Users\name\.julia\packages\Distributions\Xrm9e\src\univariate\discrete\discretenonparametric.jl:106
logpdf(::Distributions.UnivariateDistribution{S} where S<:Distributions.ValueSupport, !Matched::AbstractArray) at deprecated.jl:70
logpdf(!Matched::POMDPPolicies.PlaybackPolicy, ::Any) at C:\Users\name\.julia\packages\POMDPPolicies\wMOK3\src\playback.jl:34
...
logpdf(::Crux.ObjectCategorical, ::Float32)#utils.jl:16
logpdf(::Crux.DistributionPolicy, ::Vector{Float64}, ::Float32)#policies.jl:305
var"#exploration#133"(::Base.Iterators.Pairs{Union{}, Union{}, Tuple{}, NamedTuple{(), Tuple{}}}, ::typeof(Crux.exploration), ::Crux.DistributionPolicy, ::Vector{Float64})#policies.jl:302
exploration#policies.jl:297[inlined]
action(::Crux.DistributionPolicy, ::Vector{Float64})#policies.jl:294
var"#exploration#136"(::Crux.DiscreteNetwork, ::Int64, ::typeof(Crux.exploration), ::Crux.MixedPolicy, ::Vector{Float64})#policies.jl:326
var"#step!#173"(::Bool, ::Int64, ::typeof(Crux.step!), ::Dict{Symbol, Array}, ::Int64, ::Crux.Sampler{Main.workspace#2.SliderMDP, Vector{Float32}, Crux.DiscreteNetwork, Crux.ContinuousSpace{Tuple{Int64}}, Crux.DiscreteSpace})#sampler.jl:55
var"#steps!#174"(::Int64, ::Bool, ::Int64, ::Bool, ::Bool, ::Bool, ::typeof(Crux.steps!), ::Crux.Sampler{Main.workspace#2.SliderMDP, Vector{Float32}, Crux.DiscreteNetwork, Crux.ContinuousSpace{Tuple{Int64}}, Crux.DiscreteSpace})#sampler.jl:108
var"#fillto!#177"(::Int64, ::Bool, ::typeof(Crux.fillto!), ::Crux.ExperienceBuffer{Array}, ::Crux.Sampler{Main.workspace#2.SliderMDP, Vector{Float32}, Crux.DiscreteNetwork, Crux.ContinuousSpace{Tuple{Int64}}, Crux.DiscreteSpace}, ::Int64)#sampler.jl:156
solve(::Crux.OffPolicySolver, ::Main.workspace#2.SliderMDP)#off_policy.jl:86
top-level scope#Local: 1[inlined]
Short answer:
Change your output vector to Float32 i.e. Float32[-.1, 0, .1].
Long answer:
Crux creates a Distribution over your network's output values, and at some point (policies.jl:298) samples a random value from it. It then converts this value to a Float32. Later (utils.jl:15) it does a findfirst to find the index of this value in the original output array (stored as objs within the distribution), but because the original array is still Float64, this fails and returns a nothing. Hence the error.
I believe this (converting the sampled value but not the objs array and/or not using approximate equality check i.e. findfirst(isapprox(x), d.objs)) to be a bug in the package, and would encourage you to raise this as an issue on Github.
I am using statsmodels.tsa.arima_model.ARIMA, and I took the square root transform of the endogenous variable before plugging it into the algorithm. The model uses a differencing order of 1:
model = ARIMA(sj_sqrt, order=(2, 1, 0))
After fitting the model and grabbing the predictions, I want to put the predictions back in the original form for comparison with the original data. However, I can't seem to transform them back correctly.
To replicate a simple version of this problem, here is some code:
#original data:
test = pd.Series([1,1,1,50,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,40,1,1,2,1,1,1,1,1])
#sqrt transformed data:
test_sqrt = np.sqrt(test)
#sqrt differenced data:
test_sqrt_diff = test_sqrt.diff(periods=1)
#undo differencing:
test_sqrt_2 = cumsum(test_sqrt_diff)
#undo transformations:
test_2 = test_sqrt_2 ** 2
f, axarr = plt.subplots(5, sharex=True, sharey=True)
axarr[0].set_title('original data:')
axarr[0].plot(test)
axarr[1].set_title('sqrt transformed data:')
axarr[1].plot(test_sqrt)
axarr[2].set_title('sqrt differenced data:')
axarr[2].plot(test_sqrt_diff)
axarr[3].set_title('differencing undone with .cumsum():')
axarr[3].plot(test_sqrt_2)
axarr[4].set_title('transformation undone by squaring:')
axarr[4].plot(test_2)
f.set_size_inches(5, 12)
You can see from the graphs that the undifferenced, untransformed data is not quite on the same scale. test[3] returns 50, and test_2[3] returns 36.857864376269056
Solution:
## original
x = np.array([1,1,1,50,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,40,1,1,2,1,1,1,1,1])
## sqrt
x_sq = np.sqrt(x)
## diff
d_sq = np.diff(x_sq,n=1)
## Only works when d = 1
def diffinv(d,i):
inv = np.insert(d,0,i)
inv = np.cumsum(inv)
return inv
## inv diff
y_sq = diffinv(d_sq,x_sq[0])
## Check inv diff
(y_sq==x_sq).all()
I have a classification model in TF and can get a list of probabilities for the next class (preds). Now I want to select the highest element (argmax) and display its class label.
This may seems silly, but how can I get the class label that matches a position in the predictions tensor?
feed_dict={g['x']: current_char}
preds, state = sess.run([g['preds'],g['final_state']], feed_dict)
prediction = tf.argmax(preds, 1)
preds gives me a vector of predictions for each class. Surely there must be an easy way to just output the most likely class (label)?
Some info about my model:
x = tf.placeholder(tf.int32, [None, num_steps], name='input_placeholder')
y = tf.placeholder(tf.int32, [None, 1], name='labels_placeholder')
batch_size = batch_size = tf.shape(x)[0]
x_one_hot = tf.one_hot(x, num_classes)
rnn_inputs = [tf.squeeze(i, squeeze_dims=[1]) for i in
tf.split(x_one_hot, num_steps, 1)]
tmp = tf.stack(rnn_inputs)
print(tmp.get_shape())
tmp2 = tf.transpose(tmp, perm=[1, 0, 2])
print(tmp2.get_shape())
rnn_inputs = tmp2
with tf.variable_scope('softmax'):
W = tf.get_variable('W', [state_size, num_classes])
b = tf.get_variable('b', [num_classes], initializer=tf.constant_initializer(0.0))
rnn_outputs = rnn_outputs[:, num_steps - 1, :]
rnn_outputs = tf.reshape(rnn_outputs, [-1, state_size])
y_reshaped = tf.reshape(y, [-1])
logits = tf.matmul(rnn_outputs, W) + b
predictions = tf.nn.softmax(logits)
A prediction is an array of n types of classes(labels). It represents the model's "confidence" that the image corresponds to each of its classes(labels). You can check which label has the highest confidence value by using:
prediction = np.argmax(preds, 1)
After getting this highest element index using (argmax function) out of other probabilities, you need to place this index into class labels to find the exact class name associated with this index.
class_names[prediction]
Please refer to this link for more understanding.
You can use tf.reduce_max() for this. I would refer you to this answer.
Let me know if it works - will edit if it doesn't.
Mind that there are sometimes several ways to load a dataset. For instance with fashion MNIST the tutorial could lead you to use load_data() and then to create your own structure to interpret a prediction. However you can also load these data by using tensorflow_datasets.load(...) like here after installing tensorflow-datasets which gives you access to some DatasetInfo. So for instance if your prediction is 9 you can tell it's a boot with:
import tensorflow_datasets as tfds
_, ds_info = tfds.load('fashion_mnist', with_info=True)
print(ds_info.features['label'].names[9])
When you use softmax, the labels you train the model on are either numbers 0..n or one-hot encoded values. So if original labels of your data are let's say string names, you must map them to integers first and keep the mapping as a variable (such as 0 -> "apple", 1 -> "orange", 2 -> "pear" ...).
When using integers (with loss='sparse_categorical_crossentropy'), you get predictions as an array of probabilities, you just find the array index with the max value. You can use this predicted index to reverse-map to your label:
predictedIndex = np.argmax(predictions) // 2
predictedLabel = indexToLabelMap[predictedIndex] // "pear"
If you use one-hot encoded labels (with loss='categorical_crossentropy'), the predicted index corresponds with the "hot" index of your label.
Just for reference, I needed this info when I was working with MNIST dataset used in Google's Machine learning crash course. There is also a good classification tutorial in the Tensorflow docs.
I am developing a model that uses DecisionTreeRegressor. I have built and fit the tree using training data, and predicted the results from more recent data to confirm the model's accuracy.
To build and fit the tree:
X = np.matrix ( pre_x )
y = np.matrix( pre_y )
regr_b = DecisionTreeRegressor(max_depth = 4 )
regr_b.fit(X, y)
To predict new data:
X = np.matrix ( pre_test_x )
trial_pred = regr_b.predict(X, check_input=True)
trial_pred is an array of the predicted values. I need to join it back to pre_test_x so I can see how well the prediction matches what actually happened.
I have tried merges:
all_pred = pre_pre_test_x.merge(predictions, left_index = True, right_index = True)
and
all_pred = pd.merge (pre_pre_test_x, predictions, how='left', left_index=True, right_index=True )
and either get no results or a second copy of the columns appended to the bottom of the DataFrame with NaN in all the existing columns.
Turns out it was simple. Leave the predict output as an array, then run:
w_pred = pre_pre_test_x.copy(deep=True)
w_pred['pred_val']=trial_pred