max_depth VS min_samples_leaf
The parameters max_depth and min_samples_leaf are confusing me the most during a multiple attempts of using GridSearchCV. To my understanding both of these parameters are a way of controlling the depth of the trees, please correct me if I'm wrong.
max_features
I'm doing a very simple classification task and changing min_samples_leaf seems to have no effect on the AUC score; however, tuning the depth improves my AUC from 0.79 to 0.84, pretty drastic. Nothing else seem to affect it as well. I thought the main thing I should tune is max_features, however, best result value is not far of from sqrt(n_features).
scoring='roc_auc'
Another issue, I noticed if all the parameters are fixed while changing the number of trees, GridSearchCV will always select the highest number of trees. This is understandable but the AUC slightly drops for some reason even though scoring='roc_auc'. why is this happing? does it consider the oob_score instead.
Please feel free to share any resource that can be helpful in understanding how random forests can systematically be tuned as it seems there are few related parameters affecting each other.
As you increase max depth you increase variance and decrease bias. On the other hand, as you increase min samples leaf you decrease variance and increase bias.
So, these parameters will control the level of regularization when growing the trees. In summary, decreasing any of the max* parameters and increasing any of the min* parameters will increase regularization.
Secondly, it's hard to say why your accuracy is dropping. You might want to try nested CV to get a sense of the range of accuracies the best_params_ exhibit when generalizing to unseen data.
Related
I'm using bayesian optimization with gaussian processes to optimize my recurrent network parameters.
I'm getting pretty good results. I'm returning the validation loss of the last epoch as a feedback for the optimization algorithm.
I really would like to include some other parameters inside the feedback of each iteration, e.g. like training duration and the amount of modell parameter, because I want to find a small model with a good performance without changing the values of the parameter to a smaller range.
Problem is that I don't know the scale of the loss. If a just scale the other parameters between 0 and 1, the loss has probably to less influence if it's always in the range 0.02-0.01. In this case the smallest model would be picked, but it would have a bad performance.
Thanks for your ideas. Cheers!
Based on data that our business department supplied to us, I used the sklearn decision tree algorithm to determine the ROC_AUC for a binary classification problem.
The data consists of 450 rows and there are 30 features in the data.
I used 10 times StratifiedKFold repetition/split of training and test data. As a result, I got the following ROC_AUC values:
0.624
0.594
0.522
0.623
0.585
0.656
0.629
0.719
0.589
0.589
0.592
As I am new in machine learning, I am unsure whether such a variation in the ROC_AUC values can be expected (with minimum values of 0.522 and maximum values of 0.719).
My questions are:
Is such a big variation to be expected?
Could it be reduced with more data (=rows)?
Will the ROC_AUC variance get smaller, if the ROC_AUC gets better ("closer to 1")?
Well, you do k-fold splits to actually evaluate how well your model generalizes.
Therefore, from your current results I would assume the following:
This is a difficult problem, the AUCs are usually low.
0.71 is an outlier, you were just lucky there (probably).
Important questions that will help us help you:
What is the proportion of the binary classes? Are they balanced?
What are the features? Are they all continuous? If categorical, are they ordinal or nominal?
Why Decision Tree? Have you tried other methods? Logistic Regression for instance is a good start before you move on to more advanced ML methods.
You should run more iterations, instead of k fold use the ShuffleSplit function and run at least 100 iterations, compute the Average AUC with 95% Confidence Intervals. That will give you a better idea of how well the models perform.
Hope this helps!
Is such a big variation to be expected?
This is a textbook case of high variance.
Depending on the difficulty of your problem, 405 training samples may not be enough for it to generalize properly, and the random forest may be too powerful.
Try adding some regularization, by limiting the number of splits that the trees are allowed to make. This should reduce the variance in your model, though you might expect a potentially lower average performance.
Could it be reduced with more data (=rows)?
Yes, adding data is the other popular way of lowering the variance of your model. If you're familiar with deep learning, you'll know that deep models usually need LOTS of samples to learn properly. That's because they are very powerful models with an intrinsically high variance, and therefore a lot of data is needed for them to generalize.
Will the ROC_AUC variance get smaller, if the ROC_AUC gets better ("closer to 1")?
Variance will decrease with regularization and adding data, it has no relation to the actual performance "number" that you get.
Cheers
I am using Adam method in caffe. It has a delta/epsilon tuning parameter (used to avoid divide by zero). In caffe, its default value is 1e-8. I can change it to 1e-6 or 1-e0. From tensorflow, I hear that this parameter will affect to performance of training, especially limited dataset.
The default value of 1e-8 for epsilon might not be a good default in general. For example, when training an Inception network on ImageNet a current good choice is 1.0 or 0.1.
If anyone has experimented with changing this parameter, please give me some advice about the effect of this parameter on performance?
Consider the update equation for Adam: epsilon is to prevent dividing by zero in the case that (the exponentially-decaying average of) the standard deviation of the gradients is zero.
Why would a low value of epsilon cause problems? Perhaps there are cases where some parameters settle to good values before others and having epsilon too low means those parameters get huge learning rates and get pushed away from those good values. I'd guess this would be more problematic in something like a resnet where a lot of the layers have little effect on a large portion of the examples.
On the other hand, setting epsilon higher both limits the parameter-wise learning rate effect and reduces all the learning rates, slowing down training. It's possible to find examples of higher values of epsilon helping simply because the learning rate was too high to begin with.
I implement the ResNet for the cifar 10 in accordance with this document https://arxiv.org/pdf/1512.03385.pdf
But my accuracy is significantly different from the accuracy obtained in the document
My - 86%
Pcs daughter - 94%
What's my mistake?
https://github.com/slavaglaps/ResNet_cifar10
Your question is a little bit too generic, my opinion is that the network is over fitting to the training data set, as you can see the training loss is quite low, but after the epoch 50 the validation loss is not improving anymore.
I didn't read the paper in deep so I don't know how did they solved the problem but increasing regularization might help. The following link will point you in the right direction http://cs231n.github.io/neural-networks-3/
below I copied the summary of the text:
Summary
To train a Neural Network:
Gradient check your implementation with a small batch of data and be aware of the pitfalls.
As a sanity check, make sure your initial loss is reasonable, and that you can achieve 100% training accuracy on a very small portion of
the data
During training, monitor the loss, the training/validation accuracy, and if you’re feeling fancier, the magnitude of updates in relation to
parameter values (it should be ~1e-3), and when dealing with ConvNets,
the first-layer weights.
The two recommended updates to use are either SGD+Nesterov Momentum or Adam.
Decay your learning rate over the period of the training. For example, halve the learning rate after a fixed number of epochs, or
whenever the validation accuracy tops off.
Search for good hyperparameters with random search (not grid search). Stage your search from coarse (wide hyperparameter ranges,
training only for 1-5 epochs), to fine (narrower rangers, training for
many more epochs)
Form model ensembles for extra performance
I would argue that the difference in data pre processing makes the difference in performance. He is using padding and random crops, which in essence increases the amount of training samples and decreases the generalization error. Also as the previous poster said you are missing regularization features, such as the weight decay.
You should take another look at the paper and make sure you implement everything like they did.
When we have a high degree linear polynomial that is used to fit a set of points in a linear regression setup, to prevent overfitting, we use regularization, and we include a lambda parameter in the cost function. This lambda is then used to update the theta parameters in the gradient descent algorithm.
My question is how do we calculate this lambda regularization parameter?
The regularization parameter (lambda) is an input to your model so what you probably want to know is how do you select the value of lambda. The regularization parameter reduces overfitting, which reduces the variance of your estimated regression parameters; however, it does this at the expense of adding bias to your estimate. Increasing lambda results in less overfitting but also greater bias. So the real question is "How much bias are you willing to tolerate in your estimate?"
One approach you can take is to randomly subsample your data a number of times and look at the variation in your estimate. Then repeat the process for a slightly larger value of lambda to see how it affects the variability of your estimate. Keep in mind that whatever value of lambda you decide is appropriate for your subsampled data, you can likely use a smaller value to achieve comparable regularization on the full data set.
CLOSED FORM (TIKHONOV) VERSUS GRADIENT DESCENT
Hi! nice explanations for the intuitive and top-notch mathematical approaches there. I just wanted to add some specificities that, where not "problem-solving", may definitely help to speed up and give some consistency to the process of finding a good regularization hyperparameter.
I assume that you are talking about the L2 (a.k. "weight decay") regularization, linearly weighted by the lambda term, and that you are optimizing the weights of your model either with the closed-form Tikhonov equation (highly recommended for low-dimensional linear regression models), or with some variant of gradient descent with backpropagation. And that in this context, you want to choose the value for lambda that provides best generalization ability.
CLOSED FORM (TIKHONOV)
If you are able to go the Tikhonov way with your model (Andrew Ng says under 10k dimensions, but this suggestion is at least 5 years old) Wikipedia - determination of the Tikhonov factor offers an interesting closed-form solution, which has been proven to provide the optimal value. But this solution probably raises some kind of implementation issues (time complexity/numerical stability) I'm not aware of, because there is no mainstream algorithm to perform it. This 2016 paper looks very promising though and may be worth a try if you really have to optimize your linear model to its best.
For a quicker prototype implementation, this 2015 Python package seems to deal with it iteratively, you could let it optimize and then extract the final value for the lambda:
In this new innovative method, we have derived an iterative approach to solving the general Tikhonov regularization problem, which converges to the noiseless solution, does not depend strongly on the choice of lambda, and yet still avoids the inversion problem.
And from the GitHub README of the project:
InverseProblem.invert(A, be, k, l) #this will invert your A matrix, where be is noisy be, k is the no. of iterations, and lambda is your dampening effect (best set to 1)
GRADIENT DESCENT
All links of this part are from Michael Nielsen's amazing online book "Neural Networks and Deep Learning", recommended reading!
For this approach it seems to be even less to be said: the cost function is usually non-convex, the optimization is performed numerically and the performance of the model is measured by some form of cross validation (see Overfitting and Regularization and why does regularization help reduce overfitting if you haven't had enough of that). But even when cross-validating, Nielsen suggests something: you may want to take a look at this detailed explanation on how does the L2 regularization provide a weight decaying effect, but the summary is that it is inversely proportional to the number of samples n, so when calculating the gradient descent equation with the L2 term,
just use backpropagation, as usual, and then add (λ/n)*w to the partial derivative of all the weight terms.
And his conclusion is that, when wanting a similar regularization effect with a different number of samples, lambda has to be changed proportionally:
we need to modify the regularization parameter. The reason is because the size n of the training set has changed from n=1000 to n=50000, and this changes the weight decay factor 1−learning_rate*(λ/n). If we continued to use λ=0.1 that would mean much less weight decay, and thus much less of a regularization effect. We compensate by changing to λ=5.0.
This is only useful when applying the same model to different amounts of the same data, but I think it opens up the door for some intuition on how it should work, and, more importantly, speed up the hyperparametrization process by allowing you to finetune lambda in smaller subsets and then scale up.
For choosing the exact values, he suggests in his conclusions on how to choose a neural network's hyperparameters the purely empirical approach: start with 1 and then progressively multiply÷ by 10 until you find the proper order of magnitude, and then do a local search within that region. In the comments of this SE related question, the user Brian Borchers suggests also a very well known method that may be useful for that local search:
Take small subsets of the training and validation sets (to be able to make many of them in a reasonable amount of time)
Starting with λ=0 and increasing by small amounts within some region, perform a quick training&validation of the model and plot both loss functions
You will observe three things:
The CV loss function will be consistently higher than the training one, since your model is optimized for the training data exclusively (EDIT: After some time I've seen a MNIST case where adding L2 helped the CV loss decrease faster than the training one until convergence. Probably due to the ridiculous consistency of the data and a suboptimal hyperparametrization though).
The training loss function will have its minimum for λ=0, and then increase with the regularization, since preventing the model from optimally fitting the training data is exactly what regularization does.
The CV loss function will start high at λ=0, then decrease, and then start increasing again at some point (EDIT: this assuming that the setup is able to overfit for λ=0, i.e. the model has enough power and no other regularization means are heavily applied).
The optimal value for λ will be probably somewhere around the minimum of the CV loss function, it also may depend a little on how does the training loss function look like. See the picture for a possible (but not the only one) representation of this: instead of "model complexity" you should interpret the x axis as λ being zero at the right and increasing towards the left.
Hope this helps! Cheers,
Andres
The cross validation described above is a method used often in Machine Learning. However, choosing a reliable and safe regularization parameter is still a very hot topic of research in mathematics.
If you need some ideas (and have access to a decent university library) you can have a look at this paper:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378475411000607