Trying to understand expected value in Linear Regression - machine-learning

I'm having trouble understanding a lecture slide in my school's machine learning course
why does the expected value of Y = f(X)? what does it mean
my understanding is that X, Y are vectors and f(X) outputs a vector of Y where each individual value (y_i) in the Y vector corresponds to a f(x_i) where x_i is the value in X at index i; But now it's taking the expected value of Y, which is going to be a single value, so how is that equal to f(X)?
X, Y (uppercase) are vectors
x_i,y_i (lowercase with subscript) are scalars at index i in X,Y

There is a lot of confusion here. First let's start with definitions
Definitions
Expectation operator E[.]: Takes a random variable as an input and gives a scalar/vector as an output. Let's say Y is a normally distributed random variable with mean Mu and Variance Sigma^{2} (usually stated as:
Y ~ N( Mu , Sigma^{2} ), then E[Y] = Mu
Function f(.): Takes a scalar/vector (not a random variable) and gives a scalar/vector. In this context it is an affine function, that is f(X) = a*X + b where a and b are fixed constants.
What's Going On
Now you can view linear regression from two angles.
Stats View
One angle assumes that your response variable-Y- is a normally distributed random variable because:
Y ~ a*X + b + epsilon
where
epsilon ~ N( 0 , sigma^sq )
and X is some other distribution. We don't really care how X is distributed and treat it as given. In that case the conditional distribution is
Y|X ~ N( a*X + b , sigma^sq )
Notice here that a,b and also X is a number, there is no randomness associated with them.
Maths View
The other view is the math view where I assume that there is a function f(.) that governs the real life process, that if in real life I observe X, then f(X) should be the output. Of course this is not the case and the deviations are assumed to be due to various reasons such as gauge error etc. The claim is that this function is linear:
f(X) = a*X + b
Synthesis
Now how do we combine these? Well, as follows:
E[Y|X] = a*X + b = f(X)
About your question, I first would like to challenge that it should be Y|X and not Y by itself.
Second, there are tons of possible ontological discussions over what each term here represents in real life. X,Y (uppercase) could be vectors. X,Y (uppercase) could also be random variables. A sample of these random variables might be stored in vectors and both would be represented with uppercase letters (the best way is to use different fonts for each). In this case, your sample will become your data. Discussions about the general view of the model and its relevance to real life should be made at random variable level. The way to infer the parameters, how linear regression algorithms works should be made at matrix and vectors levels. There could be other discussion where you should care about both.
I hope this overly unorganized answer helps you. In general if you want to learn such stuff, be sure you know what kind of math objects and operators you are dealing with , what do they take as input and what are their relevance to real life.

Related

Math Behind Linear Regression

Am trying to understand math behind Linear Regression and i have verified in multiple sites that Linear Regression works under OLS method with y=mx+c to get best fit line
So in order to calculate intercept and slope we use below formula(if am not wrong)
m = sum of[ (x-mean(x)) (y-mean(y)) ] / sum of[(x-mean(x))]
c = mean(y) - b1(mean(x))
So with this we get x and c values to substitute in above equation to get y predicted values and can predict for newer x values.
But my doubt is when does "Gradient Descent" used. I understood it is also used for calculating co-efficients only in such a way it reduces the cost function by finding local minima value.
Please help me in this
Are this two having separate functions in python/R.
Or linear regression by default works on Gradient Descent(if so then when does above formula used for calculating m and c values)

Machine Learning: Why xW+b instead of Wx+b?

I started to learn Machine Learning. Now i tried to play around with tensorflow.
Often i see examples like this:
pred = tf.add(tf.mul(X, W), b)
I also saw such a line in a plain numpy implementation. Why is always x*W+b used instead of W*x+b? Is there an advantage if matrices are multiplied in this way? I see that it is possible (if X, W and b are transposed), but i do not see an advantage. In school in the math class we always only used Wx+b.
Thank you very much
This is the reason:
By default w is a vector of weights and in maths a vector is considered a column, not a row.
X is a collection of data. And it is a matrix nxd (where n is the number of data and d the number of features) (upper case X is a matrix n x d and lower case only 1 data 1 x d matrix).
To correctly multiply both and use the correct weight in the correct feature you must use X*w+b:
With X*w you mutliply every feature by its corresponding weight and by adding b you add the bias term on every prediction.
If you multiply w * X you multipy a (1 x d)*(n x d) and it has no sense.
I'm also confused with this. I guess this may be a dimension matter. For a n*m-dimension matrix W and a n-dimension vector x, using xW+b can be easily viewed as that maping a n-dimension feature to a m-dimension feature, i.e., you can easily think W as a n-dimension -> m-dimension operation, where as Wx+b (x must be m-dimension vector now) becomes a m-dimension -> n-dimension operation, which looks less comfortable in my opinion. :D

Meaning of Error Term e

I was reading the book "Introduction to Statistical Learning". The book says that:
More generally, suppose that we observe a quantitative response Y and a set of predictor variables X1, X2, .... Xn.
We assume that there is some relationship between Y and X (X1, X2, ... Xn) which can be written in the very general form as:
Y = f(X) + e
Here, f is some fixed but unknown function of X and e is a random error term which is independent of X and has mean zero.
I want to know what does it mean to have zero mean ?
I want to know what does it mean to have zero mean ?
It means, that e, treated as a random variable has expected value of 0. In other words if you compute average of these errors, then with the sample set growing to infinity - it will converge to zero.
In more practical terms it simply means, that your noise does not change your f(x) function, but so if you observe some "positive" noise, there was exact same probability of observing "negative" noise of the same strength. Notice, that if you have e with mean m this would mean that
E[f(x) + e] = E[f(x)] + E[e] = E[f(x)] + m
thus for every single point "x" you would expect to observe value f(x) + m instead of just f(x). Thus it would be the same as modelling
g(x) + e'
where
g(x) = f(x) + m
and e' is now zero-mean random noise. Thus the whole statistical setting is still valid for non-zero mean noise, but then your task (that ML is solving) is not to model "f" but "g" instead.
Let's say for illustration that your errors are normally distributed, since in introductory settings we often make that assumption. If you're willing to accept that, then another way of thinking about zero mean error is to say that your outcome variable Y is itself a random variable that is distributed like N(f(X),sigma^2). In other words, the outcome is like a random draw from some probability distributed that is centered at f(X). Note that if you have different Xs for each Y observed, then you'll see that the value of f(X) changes, and so the normal distribution that generates each observed outcome Y changes too. Yet all the observations are tied together by that basic rule (f) about how features (i.e. your X data) got assigned to the distributions that generated your outcomes.

Are there any machine learning regression algorithms that can train on ordinal data?

I have a function f(x): R^n --> R (sorry, is there a way to do LaTeX here?), and I want to build a machine learning algorithm that estimates f(x) for any input point x, based on a bunch of sample xs in a training data set. If I know the value of f(x) for every x in the training data, this should be simple - just do a regression, or take the weighted average of nearby points, or whatever.
However, this isn't what my training data looks like. Rather, I have a bunch of pairs of points (x, y), and I know the value of f(x) - f(y) for each pair, but I don't know the absolute values of f(x) for any particular x. It seems like there ought to be a way to use this data to find an approximation to f(x), but I haven't found anything after some Googling; there are papers like this but they seem to assume that the training data comes in the form of a set of discrete labels for each entity, rather than having labels over pairs of entities.
This is just making something up, but could I try kernel density estimation over f'(x), and then do integration to get f(x)? Or is that crazy, or is there a known better technique?
You could assume that f is linear, which would simplify things - if f is linear we know that:
f(x-y) = f(x) - f(y)
For example, Suppose you assume f(x) = <w, x>, making w the parameter you want to learn. How would the squared loss per sample (x,y) and known difference d look like?
loss((x,y), d) = (f(x)-f(y) - d)^2
= (<w,x> - <w,y> - d)^2
= (<w, x-y> - d)^2
= (<w, z> - d)^2 // where z:=x-y
Which is simply the squared loss for z=x-y
Practically, you would need to construct z=x-y for each pair and then learn f using linear regression over inputs z and outputs d.
This model might be too weak for your needs, but its probably the first thing you should try. Otherwise, as soon as you step away from the linearity assumption, you'd likely arrive at a difficult non-convex optimization problem.
I don't see a way to get absolute results. Any constant in your function (f(x) = g(x) + c) will disappear, in the same way constants disappear in an integral.

What is the role of the bias in neural networks? [closed]

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I'm aware of the gradient descent and the back-propagation algorithm. What I don't get is: when is using a bias important and how do you use it?
For example, when mapping the AND function, when I use two inputs and one output, it does not give the correct weights. However, when I use three inputs (one of which is a bias), it gives the correct weights.
I think that biases are almost always helpful. In effect, a bias value allows you to shift the activation function to the left or right, which may be critical for successful learning.
It might help to look at a simple example. Consider this 1-input, 1-output network that has no bias:
The output of the network is computed by multiplying the input (x) by the weight (w0) and passing the result through some kind of activation function (e.g. a sigmoid function.)
Here is the function that this network computes, for various values of w0:
Changing the weight w0 essentially changes the "steepness" of the sigmoid. That's useful, but what if you wanted the network to output 0 when x is 2? Just changing the steepness of the sigmoid won't really work -- you want to be able to shift the entire curve to the right.
That's exactly what the bias allows you to do. If we add a bias to that network, like so:
...then the output of the network becomes sig(w0*x + w1*1.0). Here is what the output of the network looks like for various values of w1:
Having a weight of -5 for w1 shifts the curve to the right, which allows us to have a network that outputs 0 when x is 2.
A simpler way to understand what the bias is: it is somehow similar to the constant b of a linear function
y = ax + b
It allows you to move the line up and down to fit the prediction with the data better.
Without b, the line always goes through the origin (0, 0) and you may get a poorer fit.
Here are some further illustrations showing the result of a simple 2-layer feed forward neural network with and without bias units on a two-variable regression problem. Weights are initialized randomly and standard ReLU activation is used. As the answers before me concluded, without the bias the ReLU-network is not able to deviate from zero at (0,0).
Two different kinds of parameters can
be adjusted during the training of an
ANN, the weights and the value in the
activation functions. This is
impractical and it would be easier if
only one of the parameters should be
adjusted. To cope with this problem a
bias neuron is invented. The bias
neuron lies in one layer, is connected
to all the neurons in the next layer,
but none in the previous layer and it
always emits 1. Since the bias neuron
emits 1 the weights, connected to the
bias neuron, are added directly to the
combined sum of the other weights
(equation 2.1), just like the t value
in the activation functions.1
The reason it's impractical is because you're simultaneously adjusting the weight and the value, so any change to the weight can neutralize the change to the value that was useful for a previous data instance... adding a bias neuron without a changing value allows you to control the behavior of the layer.
Furthermore the bias allows you to use a single neural net to represent similar cases. Consider the AND boolean function represented by the following neural network:
(source: aihorizon.com)
w0 corresponds to b.
w1 corresponds to x1.
w2 corresponds to x2.
A single perceptron can be used to
represent many boolean functions.
For example, if we assume boolean values
of 1 (true) and -1 (false), then one
way to use a two-input perceptron to
implement the AND function is to set
the weights w0 = -3, and w1 = w2 = .5.
This perceptron can be made to
represent the OR function instead by
altering the threshold to w0 = -.3. In
fact, AND and OR can be viewed as
special cases of m-of-n functions:
that is, functions where at least m of
the n inputs to the perceptron must be
true. The OR function corresponds to
m = 1 and the AND function to m = n.
Any m-of-n function is easily
represented using a perceptron by
setting all input weights to the same
value (e.g., 0.5) and then setting the
threshold w0 accordingly.
Perceptrons can represent all of the
primitive boolean functions AND, OR,
NAND ( 1 AND), and NOR ( 1 OR). Machine Learning- Tom Mitchell)
The threshold is the bias and w0 is the weight associated with the bias/threshold neuron.
The bias is not an NN term. It's a generic algebra term to consider.
Y = M*X + C (straight line equation)
Now if C(Bias) = 0 then, the line will always pass through the origin, i.e. (0,0), and depends on only one parameter, i.e. M, which is the slope so we have less things to play with.
C, which is the bias takes any number and has the activity to shift the graph, and hence able to represent more complex situations.
In a logistic regression, the expected value of the target is transformed by a link function to restrict its value to the unit interval. In this way, model predictions can be viewed as primary outcome probabilities as shown:
Sigmoid function on Wikipedia
This is the final activation layer in the NN map that turns on and off the neuron. Here also bias has a role to play and it shifts the curve flexibly to help us map the model.
A layer in a neural network without a bias is nothing more than the multiplication of an input vector with a matrix. (The output vector might be passed through a sigmoid function for normalisation and for use in multi-layered ANN afterwards, but that’s not important.)
This means that you’re using a linear function and thus an input of all zeros will always be mapped to an output of all zeros. This might be a reasonable solution for some systems but in general it is too restrictive.
Using a bias, you’re effectively adding another dimension to your input space, which always takes the value one, so you’re avoiding an input vector of all zeros. You don’t lose any generality by this because your trained weight matrix needs not be surjective, so it still can map to all values previously possible.
2D ANN:
For a ANN mapping two dimensions to one dimension, as in reproducing the AND or the OR (or XOR) functions, you can think of a neuronal network as doing the following:
On the 2D plane mark all positions of input vectors. So, for boolean values, you’d want to mark (-1,-1), (1,1), (-1,1), (1,-1). What your ANN now does is drawing a straight line on the 2d plane, separating the positive output from the negative output values.
Without bias, this straight line has to go through zero, whereas with bias, you’re free to put it anywhere.
So, you’ll see that without bias you’re facing a problem with the AND function, since you can’t put both (1,-1) and (-1,1) to the negative side. (They are not allowed to be on the line.) The problem is equal for the OR function. With a bias, however, it’s easy to draw the line.
Note that the XOR function in that situation can’t be solved even with bias.
When you use ANNs, you rarely know about the internals of the systems you want to learn. Some things cannot be learned without a bias. E.g., have a look at the following data: (0, 1), (1, 1), (2, 1), basically a function that maps any x to 1.
If you have a one layered network (or a linear mapping), you cannot find a solution. However, if you have a bias it's trivial!
In an ideal setting, a bias could also map all points to the mean of the target points and let the hidden neurons model the differences from that point.
Modification of neuron WEIGHTS alone only serves to manipulate the shape/curvature of your transfer function, and not its equilibrium/zero crossing point.
The introduction of bias neurons allows you to shift the transfer function curve horizontally (left/right) along the input axis while leaving the shape/curvature unaltered.
This will allow the network to produce arbitrary outputs different from the defaults and hence you can customize/shift the input-to-output mapping to suit your particular needs.
See here for graphical explanation:
http://www.heatonresearch.com/wiki/Bias
In a couple of experiments in my masters thesis (e.g. page 59), I found that the bias might be important for the first layer(s), but especially at the fully connected layers at the end it seems not to play a big role.
This might be highly dependent on the network architecture / dataset.
If you're working with images, you might actually prefer to not use a bias at all. In theory, that way your network will be more independent of data magnitude, as in whether the picture is dark, or bright and vivid. And the net is going to learn to do it's job through studying relativity inside your data. Lots of modern neural networks utilize this.
For other data having biases might be critical. It depends on what type of data you're dealing with. If your information is magnitude-invariant --- if inputting [1,0,0.1] should lead to the same result as if inputting [100,0,10], you might be better off without a bias.
Bias determines how much angle your weight will rotate.
In a two-dimensional chart, weight and bias can help us to find the decision boundary of outputs.
Say we need to build a AND function, the input(p)-output(t) pair should be
{p=[0,0], t=0},{p=[1,0], t=0},{p=[0,1], t=0},{p=[1,1], t=1}
Now we need to find a decision boundary, and the ideal boundary should be:
See? W is perpendicular to our boundary. Thus, we say W decided the direction of boundary.
However, it is hard to find correct W at first time. Mostly, we choose original W value randomly. Thus, the first boundary may be this:
Now the boundary is parallel to the y axis.
We want to rotate the boundary. How?
By changing the W.
So, we use the learning rule function: W'=W+P:
W'=W+P is equivalent to W' = W + bP, while b=1.
Therefore, by changing the value of b(bias), you can decide the angle between W' and W. That is "the learning rule of ANN".
You could also read Neural Network Design by Martin T. Hagan / Howard B. Demuth / Mark H. Beale, chapter 4 "Perceptron Learning Rule"
In simpler terms, biases allow for more and more variations of weights to be learnt/stored... (side-note: sometimes given some threshold). Anyway, more variations mean that biases add richer representation of the input space to the model's learnt/stored weights. (Where better weights can enhance the neural net’s guessing power)
For example, in learning models, the hypothesis/guess is desirably bounded by y=0 or y=1 given some input, in maybe some classification task... i.e some y=0 for some x=(1,1) and some y=1 for some x=(0,1). (The condition on the hypothesis/outcome is the threshold I talked about above. Note that my examples setup inputs X to be each x=a double or 2 valued-vector, instead of Nate's single valued x inputs of some collection X).
If we ignore the bias, many inputs may end up being represented by a lot of the same weights (i.e. the learnt weights mostly occur close to the origin (0,0).
The model would then be limited to poorer quantities of good weights, instead of the many many more good weights it could better learn with bias. (Where poorly learnt weights lead to poorer guesses or a decrease in the neural net’s guessing power)
So, it is optimal that the model learns both close to the origin, but also, in as many places as possible inside the threshold/decision boundary. With the bias we can enable degrees of freedom close to the origin, but not limited to origin's immediate region.
In neural networks:
Each neuron has a bias
You can view bias as a threshold (generally opposite values of threshold)
Weighted sum from input layers + bias decides activation of a neuron
Bias increases the flexibility of the model.
In absence of bias, the neuron may not be activated by considering only the weighted sum from the input layer. If the neuron is not activated, the information from this neuron is not passed through rest of the neural network.
The value of bias is learnable.
Effectively, bias = — threshold. You can think of bias as how easy it is to get the neuron to output a 1 — with a really big bias, it’s very easy for the neuron to output a 1, but if the bias is very negative, then it’s difficult.
In summary: bias helps in controlling the value at which the activation function will trigger.
Follow this video for more details.
Few more useful links:
geeksforgeeks
towardsdatascience
Expanding on zfy's explanation:
The equation for one input, one neuron, one output should look:
y = a * x + b * 1 and out = f(y)
where x is the value from the input node and 1 is the value of the bias node;
y can be directly your output or be passed into a function, often a sigmoid function. Also note that the bias could be any constant, but to make everything simpler we always pick 1 (and probably that's so common that zfy did it without showing & explaining it).
Your network is trying to learn coefficients a and b to adapt to your data.
So you can see why adding the element b * 1 allows it to fit better to more data: now you can change both slope and intercept.
If you have more than one input your equation will look like:
y = a0 * x0 + a1 * x1 + ... + aN * 1
Note that the equation still describes a one neuron, one output network; if you have more neurons you just add one dimension to the coefficient matrix, to multiplex the inputs to all nodes and sum back each node contribution.
That you can write in vectorized format as
A = [a0, a1, .., aN] , X = [x0, x1, ..., 1]
Y = A . XT
i.e. putting coefficients in one array and (inputs + bias) in another you have your desired solution as the dot product of the two vectors (you need to transpose X for the shape to be correct, I wrote XT a 'X transposed')
So in the end you can also see your bias as is just one more input to represent the part of the output that is actually independent of your input.
To think in a simple way, if you have y=w1*x where y is your output and w1 is the weight, imagine a condition where x=0 then y=w1*x equals to 0.
If you want to update your weight you have to compute how much change by delw=target-y where target is your target output. In this case 'delw' will not change since y is computed as 0. So, suppose if you can add some extra value it will help y = w1x + w01, where bias=1 and weight can be adjusted to get a correct bias. Consider the example below.
In terms of line slope, intercept is a specific form of linear equations.
y = mx + b
Check the image
image
Here b is (0,2)
If you want to increase it to (0,3) how will you do it by changing the value of b the bias.
For all the ML books I studied, the W is always defined as the connectivity index between two neurons, which means the higher connectivity between two neurons.
The stronger the signals will be transmitted from the firing neuron to the target neuron or Y = w * X as a result to maintain the biological character of neurons, we need to keep the 1 >=W >= -1, but in the real regression, the W will end up with |W| >=1 which contradicts how the neurons are working.
As a result, I propose W = cos(theta), while 1 >= |cos(theta)|, and Y= a * X = W * X + b while a = b + W = b + cos(theta), b is an integer.
Bias acts as our anchor. It's a way for us to have some kind of baseline where we don't go below that. In terms of a graph, think of like y=mx+b it's like a y-intercept of this function.
output = input times the weight value and added a bias value and then apply an activation function.
The term bias is used to adjust the final output matrix as the y-intercept does. For instance, in the classic equation, y = mx + c, if c = 0, then the line will always pass through 0. Adding the bias term provides more flexibility and better generalisation to our neural network model.
The bias helps to get a better equation.
Imagine the input and output like a function y = ax + b and you need to put the right line between the input(x) and output(y) to minimise the global error between each point and the line, if you keep the equation like this y = ax, you will have one parameter for adaptation only, even if you find the best a minimising the global error it will be kind of far from the wanted value.
You can say the bias makes the equation more flexible to adapt to the best values

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