I want to build Exploration AFL. Below is the scenario.
Momentum Score:
Monthly momentum values are calculated as cumulative returns over the past 12 months.
The monthly momentum is calculated in 3 steps
1) We calculate gross monthly returns by adding one to the percent monthly return. For example, from a monthly return of 5% (0.05), we get the gross monthly return value of 1.05 (0.05 + 1) while from a monthly return of -5% (-0.05) we get a gross monthly return of 0.95 (0.05 + 1.0).
2) We multiply all the gross monthly returns of past 12 months.
3) We subtract one from the resultant value from step 2 to get the net 12-month momentum score.
To illustrate this calculation, let's say AUROPHARMA (Aurobindo Pharma) stock has moved by 2%, -5%, 4.3%, 0.5%, 10.1%, -2.2%, 6%, 3.6%, 0.1%, 0.4%, 1.4%, -2.6% over the past 12 months. Then, we add 1 to monthly return, multiply all of them & subtract one from it to get the momentum score.
Momentum Score = (1.02)(0.95)(1.043)(1.05)(1.101)(0.978)(0.94)(1.036)(1.001)(1.004)(1.014)*(0.974) - 1
This will give a momentum score of 10.45% (0.1045) to the Aurobindo Pharma Stock.
Can someone please help?
TimeFrameSet(inMonthly);
TtD_Change = 100 * (Close - Ref(Close, -12) ) / Ref(Close, -12);
_SECTION_BEGIN("Explorer");
Filter = 1;
AddColumn(TtD_Change,"Momentum",1.2,IIf(TtD_Change>0,colorGreen,colorRed));
_SECTION_END();
Related
I am trying to do a multiclass classification problem (containing 3 labels) with softmax regression.
This is my first rough implementation with gradient descent and back propagation (without using regularization and any advanced optimization algorithm) containing only 1 layer.
Also when learning-rate is big (>0.003) cost becomes NaN, on decreasing learning-rate the cost function works fine.
Can anyone explain what I'm doing wrong??
# X is (13,177) dimensional
# y is (3,177) dimensional with label 0/1
m = X.shape[1] # 177
W = np.random.randn(3,X.shape[0])*0.01 # (3,13)
b = 0
cost = 0
alpha = 0.0001 # seems too small to me but for bigger values cost becomes NaN
for i in range(100):
Z = np.dot(W,X) + b
t = np.exp(Z)
add = np.sum(t,axis=0)
A = t/add
loss = -np.multiply(y,np.log(A))
cost += np.sum(loss)/m
print('cost after iteration',i+1,'is',cost)
dZ = A-y
dW = np.dot(dZ,X.T)/m
db = np.sum(dZ)/m
W = W - alpha*dW
b = b - alpha*db
This is what I get :
cost after iteration 1 is 6.661713420377916
cost after iteration 2 is 23.58974203186562
cost after iteration 3 is 52.75811642877174
.............................................................
...............*upto 100 iterations*.................
.............................................................
cost after iteration 99 is 1413.555298639879
cost after iteration 100 is 1429.6533630169406
Well after some time i figured it out.
First of all the cost was increasing due to this :
cost += np.sum(loss)/m
Here plus sign is not needed as it will add all the previous cost computed on every epoch which is not what we want. This implementation is generally required during mini-batch gradient descent for computing cost over each epoch.
Secondly the learning rate is too big for this problem that's why cost was overshooting the minimum value and becoming NaN.
I looked in my code and find out that my features were of very different range (one was from -1 to 1 and other was -5000 to 5000) which was limiting my algorithm to use greater values for learning rate.
So I applied feature scaling :
var = np.var(X, axis=1)
X = X/var
Now learning rate can be much bigger (<=0.001).
I am looking for any methodology to assign a risk score to an individual based on certain events. I am looking to have a 0-100 scale with an exponential assignment. For example, for one event a day the score may rise to 25, for 2 it may rise to 50-60 and for 3-4 events a day the score for the day would be 100.
I tried to Google it but since I am not aware of the right terminology, I am landing up on random topics. :(
Is there any mathematical terminology for this kind of scoring system? what are the most common methods you might know?
P.S.: Expert/experience data scientist advice highly appreciated ;)
I would start by writing some qualifications:
0 events trigger a score of 0.
Non edge event count observations are where the score – 100-threshold would live.
Any score after the threshold will be 100.
If so, here's a (very) simplified example:
Stage Data:
userid <- c("a1","a2","a3","a4","a11","a12","a13","a14","u2","wtf42","ub40","foo","bar","baz","blue","bop","bob","boop","beep","mee","r")
events <- c(0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,2,3,2,3,6,122,13,1)
df1 <- data.frame(userid,events)
Optional: Normalize events to be in (1,2].
This might be helpful for logarithmic properties. (Otherwise, given the assumed function, score=events^exp, as in this example, 1 event will always yield a score of 1) This will allow you to control sensitivity, but it must be done right as we are dealing with exponents and logarithms. I am not using normalization in the example:
normevents <- (events-mean(events))/((max(events)-min(events))*2)+1.5
Set the quantile threshold for max score:
MaxScoreThreshold <- 0.25
Get the non edge quintiles of the events distribution:
qts <- quantile(events[events>min(events) & events<max(events)], c(seq(from=0, to=100,by=5)/100))
Find the Events quantity that give a score of 100 using the set threshold.
MaxScoreEvents <- quantile(qts,MaxScoreThreshold)
Find the exponent of your exponential function
Given that:
Score = events ^ exponent
events is a Natural number - integer >0: We took care of it by
omitting the edges)
exponent > 1
Exponent Calculation:
exponent <- log(100)/log(MaxScoreEvents)
Generate the scores:
df1$Score <- apply(as.matrix(events^exponent),1,FUN = function(x) {
if (x > 100) {
result <- 100
}
else if (x < 0) {
result <- 0
}
else {
result <- x
}
return(ceiling(result))
})
df1
Resulting Data Frame:
userid events Score
1 a1 0 0
2 a2 0 0
3 a3 0 0
4 a4 0 0
5 a11 0 0
6 a12 0 0
7 a13 0 0
8 a14 0 0
9 u2 0 0
10 wtf42 0 0
11 ub40 0 0
12 foo 0 0
13 bar 1 1
14 baz 2 100
15 blue 3 100
16 bop 2 100
17 bob 3 100
18 boop 6 100
19 beep 122 100
20 mee 13 100
21 r 1 1
Under the assumption that your data is larger and has more event categories, the score won't snap to 100 so quickly, it is also a function of the threshold.
I would rely more on the data to define the parameters, threshold in this case.
If you have prior data as to what users really did whatever it is your score assess you can perform supervised learning, set the threshold # wherever the ratio is over 50% for example. Or If the graph of events to probability of ‘success’ looks like the cumulative probability function of a normal distribution, I’d set threshold # wherever it hits 45 degrees (For the first time).
You could also use logistic regression if you have prior data but instead of a Logit function ingesting the output of regression, use the number as your score. You can normalize it to be within 0-100.
It’s not always easy to write a Data Science question. I made many assumptions as to what you are looking for, hope this is the general direction.
I have found that during training my model vw shows very big (much more than my features count ) feature number count in it's log.
I have tried to reproduce it using some small example:
simple.test:
-1 | 1 2 3
1 | 3 4 5
then "vw simple.test" command says that it have used 8 features. +one feature is constant but what are the other ? And in my real exmaple difference between my features and features used in wv is abot x10 more.
....
Num weight bits = 18
learning rate = 0.5
initial_t = 0
power_t = 0.5
using no cache
Reading datafile = t
num sources = 1
average since example example current current current
loss last counter weight label predict features
finished run
number of examples = 2
weighted example sum = 2
weighted label sum = 3
average loss = 1.9179
best constant = 1.5
total feature number = 8 !!!!
total feature number displays a sum of feature counts from all observed examples. So it's 2*(3+1 constant)=8 in your case. The number of features in current example is displayed in current features column. Note that only 2^Nth example is printed on screen by default. In general observations can have unequal number of features.
Someone will answer a series of questions and will mark each important (I), very important (V), or extremely important (E). I'll then match their answers with answers given by everyone else, compute the percent of the answers in each bucket that are the same, then combine the percentages to get a final score.
For example, I answer 10 questions, marking 3 as extremely important, 5 as very important, and 2 as important. I then match my answers with someone else's, and they answer the same to 2/3 extremely important questions, 4/5 very important questions, and 2/2 important questions. This results in percentages of 66.66 (extremely important), 80.00 (very important), and 100.00 (important). I then combine these 3 percentages to get a final score, but I first weigh each percentage to reflect the importance of each bucket. So the result would be something like: score = E * 66.66 + V * 80.00 + I * 100.00. The values of E, V, and I (the weights) are what I'm trying to figure out how to calculate.
The following are the constraints present:
1 + X + X^2 = X^3
E >= X * V >= X^2 * I > 0
E + V + I = 1
E + 0.9 * V >= 0.9
0.9 > 0.9 * E + 0.75 * V >= 0.75
E + I < 0.75
When combining the percentages, I could give important a weight of 0.0749, very important a weight of .2501, and extremely important a weight of 0.675, but this seems arbitrary, so I'm wondering how to go about calculating the optimal value for each weight. Also, how do I calculate the optimal weights if I ignore all constraints?
As far as what I mean by optimal: while adhering to the last 4 constraints, I want the weight of each bucket to be the maximum possible value, while having the weights be as far apart as possible (extremely important questions weighted maximally more than very important questions, and very important questions weighted maximally more than important questions).
I want to find the standard deviation:
Minimum = 5
Mean = 24
Maximum = 84
Overall score = 90
I just want to find out my grade by using the standard deviation
Thanks,
A standard deviation cannot in general be computed from just the min, max, and mean. This can be demonstrated with two sets of scores that have the same min, and max, and mean but different standard deviations:
1 2 4 5 : min=1 max=5 mean=3 stdev≈1.5811
1 3 3 5 : min=1 max=5 mean=3 stdev≈0.7071
Also, what does an 'overall score' of 90 mean if the maximum is 84?
I actually did a quick-and-dirty calculation of the type M Rad mentions. It involves assuming that the distribution is Gaussian or "normal." This does not apply to your situation but might help others asking the same question. (You can tell your distribution is not normal because the distance from mean to max and mean to min is not close). Even if it were normal, you would need something you don't mention: the number of samples (number of tests taken in your case).
Those readers who DO have a normal population can use the table below to give a rough estimate by dividing the difference of your measured minimum and your calculated mean by the expected value for your sample size. On average, it will be off by the given number of standard deviations. (I have no idea whether it is biased - change the code below and calculate the error without the abs to get a guess.)
Num Samples Expected distance Expected error
10 1.55 0.25
20 1.88 0.20
30 2.05 0.18
40 2.16 0.17
50 2.26 0.15
60 2.33 0.15
70 2.38 0.14
80 2.43 0.14
90 2.47 0.13
100 2.52 0.13
This experiment shows that the "rule of thumb" of dividing the range by 4 to get the standard deviation is in general incorrect -- even for normal populations. In my experiment it only holds for sample sizes between 20 and 40 (and then loosely). This rule may have been what the OP was thinking about.
You can modify the following python code to generate the table for different values (change max_sample_size) or more accuracy (change num_simulations) or get rid of the limitation to multiples of 10 (change the parameters to xrange in the for loop for idx)
#!/usr/bin/python
import random
# Return the distance of the minimum of samples from its mean
#
# Samples must have at least one entry
def min_dist_from_estd_mean(samples):
total = 0
sample_min = samples[0]
for sample in samples:
total += sample
sample_min = min(sample, sample_min)
estd_mean = total / len(samples)
return estd_mean - sample_min # Pos bec min cannot be greater than mean
num_simulations = 4095
max_sample_size = 100
# Calculate expected distances
sum_of_dists=[0]*(max_sample_size+1) # +1 so can index by sample size
for iternum in xrange(num_simulations):
samples=[random.normalvariate(0,1)]
while len(samples) <= max_sample_size:
sum_of_dists[len(samples)] += min_dist_from_estd_mean(samples)
samples.append(random.normalvariate(0,1))
expected_dist = [total/num_simulations for total in sum_of_dists]
# Calculate average error using that distance
sum_of_errors=[0]*len(sum_of_dists)
for iternum in xrange(num_simulations):
samples=[random.normalvariate(0,1)]
while len(samples) <= max_sample_size:
ave_dist = expected_dist[len(samples)]
if ave_dist > 0:
sum_of_errors[len(samples)] += \
abs(1 - (min_dist_from_estd_mean(samples)/ave_dist))
samples.append(random.normalvariate(0,1))
expected_error = [total/num_simulations for total in sum_of_errors]
cols=" {0:>15}{1:>20}{2:>20}"
print(cols.format("Num Samples","Expected distance","Expected error"))
cols=" {0:>15}{1:>20.2f}{2:>20.2f}"
for idx in xrange(10,len(expected_dist),10):
print(cols.format(idx, expected_dist[idx], expected_error[idx]))
Yo can obtain an estimate of the geometric mean, sometimes called the geometric mean of the extremes or GME, using the Min and the Max by calculating the GME= $\sqrt{ Min*Max }$. The SD can be then calculated using your arithmetic mean (AM) and the GME as:
SD= $$\frac{AM}{GME} * \sqrt{(AM)^2-(GME)^2 }$$
This approach works well for log-normal distributions or as long as the GME, GM or Median is smaller than the AM.
In principle you can make an estimate of standard deviation from the mean/min/max and the number of elements in the sample. The min and max of a sample are, if you assume normality, random variables whose statistics follow from mean/stddev/number of samples. So given the latter, one can compute (after slogging through the math or running a bunch of monte carlo scripts) a confidence interval for the former (like it is 80% probable that the stddev is between 20 and 40 or something like that).
That said, it probably isn't worth doing except in extreme situations.