How to get probability of spam rather than classification - machine-learning

I am building a tool to calculate a probability of a text review to be fake(spam) or real.
I have an annotated dataset of reviews marked as spam or nonspam. I have used svm to build a classifier, but that only gives me classification of an input document as spam or nonspam. Whereas, I want a tool that will give me a number between 0 and 1 representing probability of the document being spam. Can someone please point me in the right direction.

If you want a continuous-valued score (rather than an explicit probability), you can just use the distance to the hyperplane from the SVM. This is a standard measure of confidence, which you can see as how far "into" the class the point is.
If you want to actually use the classifications as part of a broader probabilistic model, where you need something with a genuine probability interpretation, you could use one of the methods for converting SVM scores into probabilities, but these are somewhat retrofit and don't have great theoretical underpinnings. Instead, I'd suggest you take a look at the logistic regression classifier, sometimes known as Maximum Entropy, for a robust probabilistic alternative. This has the benefits of a discriminative model like SVM but with a natural and inherent probabilistic underpinning.

Instead of writing your own, why not plug into akismet? Spam detection is Bayesian and performs better the more data you give it.

You can get the probability with a SVM. Take a look at libsvm (-b parameter).

Related

Naive Bayes vs. SVM for classifying text data

I'm working on a problem that involves classifying a large database of texts. The texts are very short (think 3-8 words each) and there are 10-12 categories into which I wish to sort them. For the features, I'm simply using the tf–idf frequency of each word. Thus, the number of features is roughly equal to the number of words that appear overall in the texts (I'm removing stop words and some others).
In trying to come up with a model to use, I've had the following two ideas:
Naive Bayes (likely the sklearn multinomial Naive Bayes implementation)
Support vector machine (with stochastic gradient descent used in training, also an sklearn implementation)
I have built both models, and am currently comparing the results.
What are the theoretical pros and cons to each model? Why might one of these be better for this type of problem? I'm new to machine learning, so what I'd like to understand is why one might do better.
Many thanks!
The biggest difference between the models you're building from a "features" point of view is that Naive Bayes treats them as independent, whereas SVM looks at the interactions between them to a certain degree, as long as you're using a non-linear kernel (Gaussian, rbf, poly etc.). So if you have interactions, and, given your problem, you most likely do, an SVM will be better at capturing those, hence better at the classification task you want.
The consensus for ML researchers and practitioners is that in almost all cases, the SVM is better than the Naive Bayes.
From a theoretical point of view, it is a little bit hard to compare the two methods. One is probabilistic in nature, while the second one is geometric. However, it's quite easy to come up with a function where one has dependencies between variables which are not captured by Naive Bayes (y(a,b) = ab), so we know it isn't an universal approximator. SVMs with the proper choice of Kernel are (as are 2/3 layer neural networks) though, so from that point of view, the theory matches the practice.
But in the end it comes down to performance on your problem - you basically want to choose the simplest method which will give good enough results for your problem and have a good enough performance. Spam detection has been famously solvable by just Naive Bayes, for example. Face recognition in images by a similar method enhanced with boosting etc.
Support Vector Machine (SVM) is better at full-length content.
Multinomial Naive Bayes (MNB) is better at snippets.
MNB is stronger for snippets than for longer documents. While (Ng and Jordan,
2002) showed that NB is better than SVM/logistic
regression (LR) with few training cases, MNB is also better with short documents. SVM usually beats NB when it has more than 30–50 training cases, we show that MNB is still better on snippets even with relatively large training sets (9k cases).
Inshort, NBSVM seems to be an appropriate and very strong baseline for sophisticated classification text data.
Source Code: https://github.com/prakhar-agarwal/Naive-Bayes-SVM
Reference: http://nlp.stanford.edu/pubs/sidaw12_simple_sentiment.pdf
Cite: Wang, Sida, and Christopher D. Manning. "Baselines and bigrams:
Simple, good sentiment and topic classification." Proceedings of the
50th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics:
Short Papers-Volume 2. Association for Computational Linguistics,
2012.

Differentiate between tf-idf document similarity and naive Bayes classifier

How do I choose between tf-idf document similarity and naive Bayes classifier. I don't understand which one to use, is there any method to identify which algorithm is good for what purpose?
You don't.
Term Frequency Inverse Document Frequency is a method of assigning numeric values to features. It is (mostly) independent of the method use to classify the data points.
I assume by similarity you mean cosine similarity & nearest neighbor classification.
Provided you are doing classification, you would choose whichever method seems to give you the best accuracy (or best meet your requirements). In the presence of very large data sets, computing the cosine similarity to each document in your data set will become prohibitive.
If you meant cosine similarity to rank results (find a document similar to Q), then there is no "choice". That is a ranking task, naive bayes is for classification.
In real life, both methods are not particularly good. You would only use them to get an initial idea of how hard / easy a task might be by throwing the dumb & simple methods at it. If one "dumb" method performed significantly better than the others, you might consider trying more advanced models that are related to the best dumb method.

What are the metrics to evaluate a machine learning algorithm

I would like to know what are the various techniques and metrics used to evaluate how accurate/good an algorithm is and how to use a given metric to derive a conclusion about a ML model.
one way to do this is to use precision and recall, as defined here in wikipedia.
Another way is to use the accuracy metric as explained here. So, what I would like to know is whether there are other metrics for evaluating an ML model?
I've compiled, a while ago, a list of metrics used to evaluate classification and regression algorithms, under the form of a cheatsheet. Some metrics for classification: precision, recall, sensitivity, specificity, F-measure, Matthews correlation, etc. They are all based on the confusion matrix. Others exist for regression (continuous output variable).
The technique is mostly to run an algorithm on some data to get a model, and then apply that model on new, previously unseen data, and evaluate the metric on that data set, and repeat.
Some techniques (actually resampling techniques from statistics):
Jacknife
Crossvalidation
K-fold validation
bootstrap.
Talking about ML in general is a quite vast field, but I'll try to answer any way. The Wikipedia definition of ML is the following
Machine learning, a branch of artificial intelligence, concerns the construction and study of systems that can learn from data.
In this context learning can be defined parameterization of an algorithm. The parameters of the algorithm are derived using input data with a known output. When the algorithm has "learned" the association between input and output, it can be tested with further input data for which the output is well known.
Let's suppose your problem is to obtain words from speech. Here the input is some kind of audio file containing one word (not necessarily, but I supposed this case to keep it quite simple). You'd record X words N times and then use (for example) N/2 of the repetitions to parameterize your algorithm, disregarding - at the moment - how your algorithm would look like.
Now on the one hand - depending on the algorithm - if you feed your algorithm with one of the remaining repetitions, it may give you some certainty estimate which may be used to characterize the recognition of just one of the repetitions. On the other hand you may use all of the remaining repetitions to test the learned algorithm. For each of the repetitions you pass it to the algorithm and compare the expected output with the actual output. After all you'll have an accuracy value for the learned algorithm calculated as the quotient of correct and total classifications.
Anyway, the actual accuracy will depend on the quality of your learning and test data.
A good start to read on would be Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning by Christopher M Bishop
There are various metrics for evaluating the performance of ML model and there is no rule that there are 20 or 30 metrics only. You can create your own metrics depending on your problem. There are various cases wherein when you are solving real - world problem where you would need to create your own custom metrics.
Coming to the existing ones, it is already listed in the first answer, I would just highlight each metrics merits and demerits to better have an understanding.
Accuracy is the simplest of the metric and it is commonly used. It is the number of points to class 1/ total number of points in your dataset. This is for 2 class problem where some points belong to class 1 and some to belong to class 2. It is not preferred when the dataset is imbalanced because it is biased to balanced one and it is not that much interpretable.
Log loss is a metric that helps to achieve probability scores that gives you better understanding why a specific point is belonging to class 1. The best part of this metric is that it is inbuild in logistic regression which is famous ML technique.
Confusion metric is best used for 2-class classification problem which gives four numbers and the diagonal numbers helps to get an idea of how good is your model.Through this metric there are others such as precision, recall and f1-score which are interpretable.

What's the meaning of logistic regression dataset labels?

I've learned the Logistic Regression for some days, and i think the logistic regression's dataset's labels needs to be 1 or 0, is it right ?
But when i lookup the libSVM library's regression dataset, i see the label values are continues number(e.g. 1.0086,1.0089 ...), did i miss something ?
Note that the libSVM library could be used for regression problem.
Thanks so much !
Contrary to its name, logistic regression is a classification algorithm and it outputs class probability conditioned on the data point. Therefore the training set labels need to be either 0 or 1. For the dataset you mentioned, logistic regression is not a suitable algorithm.
SVM is a classification algorithm and it uses the input labels -1 or 1. It is not a probabilistic algorithm and it doesn't output class probabilities. It also can be adapted to regression.
Are you using a 3rd party library or programming this yourself? Generally the labels are used as ground truth so you can see how effective your approach was.
For example if your algo is trying to predict what a particular instance is it might output -1, the ground truth label will be +1 which means you did not successfully classify that particular instance.
Note that "regression" is a general term. To say someone will perform regression analysis doesn't necessarily tell you what algorithm they will be using, nor all of the nature of the data sets. All it really tells you is that you have a set of samples with features which you want to use to predict a single outcome value (a model for conditional probability).
One major difference between logistic regression and linear regression is that the former is usually trained on categorical, binary-labeled sample sets; while the latter is trained on real-labeled (ℝ) sample sets.
Any time your labels are real valued, it means you're probably going to use linear regression or similar, or else convert those real valued labels to categorical labels (e.g. via thresholds or bins) if you want to in fact use logistic regression. There is potentially a big difference in the quality and interpretation of your results though, if you try to convert from one such problem setup to another.
See also Regression Analysis.

Ways to improve the accuracy of a Naive Bayes Classifier?

I am using a Naive Bayes Classifier to categorize several thousand documents into 30 different categories. I have implemented a Naive Bayes Classifier, and with some feature selection (mostly filtering useless words), I've gotten about a 30% test accuracy, with 45% training accuracy. This is significantly better than random, but I want it to be better.
I've tried implementing AdaBoost with NB, but it does not appear to give appreciably better results (the literature seems split on this, some papers say AdaBoost with NB doesn't give better results, others do). Do you know of any other extensions to NB that may possibly give better accuracy?
In my experience, properly trained Naive Bayes classifiers are usually astonishingly accurate (and very fast to train--noticeably faster than any classifier-builder i have everused).
so when you want to improve classifier prediction, you can look in several places:
tune your classifier (adjusting the classifier's tunable paramaters);
apply some sort of classifier combination technique (eg,
ensembling, boosting, bagging); or you can
look at the data fed to the classifier--either add more data,
improve your basic parsing, or refine the features you select from
the data.
w/r/t naive Bayesian classifiers, parameter tuning is limited; i recommend to focus on your data--ie, the quality of your pre-processing and the feature selection.
I. Data Parsing (pre-processing)
i assume your raw data is something like a string of raw text for each data point, which by a series of processing steps you transform each string into a structured vector (1D array) for each data point such that each offset corresponds to one feature (usually a word) and the value in that offset corresponds to frequency.
stemming: either manually or by using a stemming library? the popular open-source ones are Porter, Lancaster, and Snowball. So for
instance, if you have the terms programmer, program, progamming,
programmed in a given data point, a stemmer will reduce them to a
single stem (probably program) so your term vector for that data
point will have a value of 4 for the feature program, which is
probably what you want.
synonym finding: same idea as stemming--fold related words into a single word; so a synonym finder can identify developer, programmer,
coder, and software engineer and roll them into a single term
neutral words: words with similar frequencies across classes make poor features
II. Feature Selection
consider a prototypical use case for NBCs: filtering spam; you can quickly see how it fails and just as quickly you can see how to improve it. For instance, above-average spam filters have nuanced features like: frequency of words in all caps, frequency of words in title, and the occurrence of exclamation point in the title. In addition, the best features are often not single words but e.g., pairs of words, or larger word groups.
III. Specific Classifier Optimizations
Instead of 30 classes use a 'one-against-many' scheme--in other words, you begin with a two-class classifier (Class A and 'all else') then the results in the 'all else' class are returned to the algorithm for classification into Class B and 'all else', etc.
The Fisher Method (probably the most common way to optimize a Naive Bayes classifier.) To me,
i think of Fisher as normalizing (more correctly, standardizing) the input probabilities An NBC uses the feature probabilities to construct a 'whole-document' probability. The Fisher Method calculates the probability of a category for each feature of the document then combines these feature probabilities and compares that combined probability with the probability of a random set of features.
I would suggest using a SGDClassifier as in this and tune it in terms of regularization strength.
Also try to tune the formula in TFIDF you're using by tuning the parameters of TFIFVectorizer.
I usually see that for text classification problems SVM or Logistic Regressioin when trained one-versus-all outperforms NB. As you can see in this nice article by Stanford people for longer documents SVM outperforms NB. The code for the paper which uses a combination of SVM and NB (NBSVM) is here.
Second, tune your TFIDF formula (e.g. sublinear tf, smooth_idf).
Normalize your samples with l2 or l1 normalization (default in Tfidfvectorization) because it compensates for different document lengths.
Multilayer Perceptron, usually gets better results than NB or SVM because of the non-linearity introduced which is inherent to many text classification problems. I have implemented a highly parallel one using Theano/Lasagne which is easy to use and downloadable here.
Try to tune your l1/l2/elasticnet regularization. It makes a huge difference in SGDClassifier/SVM/Logistic Regression.
Try to use n-grams which is configurable in tfidfvectorizer.
If your documents have structure (e.g. have titles) consider using different features for different parts. For example add title_word1 to your document if word1 happens in the title of the document.
Consider using the length of the document as a feature (e.g. number of words or characters).
Consider using meta information about the document (e.g. time of creation, author name, url of the document, etc.).
Recently Facebook published their FastText classification code which performs very well across many tasks, be sure to try it.
Using Laplacian Correction along with AdaBoost.
In AdaBoost, first a weight is assigned to each data tuple in the training dataset. The intial weights are set using the init_weights method, which initializes each weight to be 1/d, where d is the size of the training data set.
Then, a generate_classifiers method is called, which runs k times, creating k instances of the Naïve Bayes classifier. These classifiers are then weighted, and the test data is run on each classifier. The sum of the weighted "votes" of the classifiers constitutes the final classification.
Improves Naive Bayes classifier for general cases
Take the logarithm of your probabilities as input features
We change the probability space to log probability space since we calculate the probability by multiplying probabilities and the result will be very small. when we change to log probability features, we can tackle the under-runs problem.
Remove correlated features.
Naive Byes works based on the assumption of independence when we have a correlation between features which means one feature depends on others then our assumption will fail.
More about correlation can be found here
Work with enough data not the huge data
naive Bayes require less data than logistic regression since it only needs data to understand the probabilistic relationship of each attribute in isolation with the output variable, not the interactions.
Check zero frequency error
If the test data set has zero frequency issue, apply smoothing techniques “Laplace Correction” to predict the class of test data set.
More than this is well described in the following posts
Please refer below posts.
machinelearningmastery site post
Analyticvidhya site post
keeping the n size small also make NB to give high accuracy result. and at the core, as the n size increase its accuracy degrade,
Select features which have less correlation between them. And try using different combination of features at a time.

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