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There are several components and techniques used in learning programs. Machine learning components include ANN, Bayesian networks, SVM, PCA and other probability based methods. What role do Bayesian networks based techniques play in machine learning?
Also it would be helpful to know how does integrating one or more of these components into applications lead to real solutions, and how does software deal with limited knowledge and still produce sufficiently reliable results.
Probability and Learning
Probability plays a role in all learning. If we apply Shannon's information theory, the movement of probability toward one of the extremes 0.0 or 1.0 is information. Shannon defined a bit as the quotient of the log_2 of the before and after probabilities of a hypothesis. Given the probability of the hypothesis and its logical inversion, if the probability does not increase for either, no bits of information have been learned.
Bayesian Approaches
Bayesian Networks are directed graphs that represents causality hypotheses. They are generally represented as nodes with conditions connected by arrows that represent the hypothetical causes and corresponding effects. Algorithms have been developed based on Bayes' Theorem that attempt to statistically analyze causality from data that had been or is being collected.
MINOR SIDE NOTE: There are often usage constraints for the analytic tools. Most Bayesian algorithms require that the directed graph be acyclic, meaning that no series of arrows exist between two or more nodes anywhere in the graph that create a purely clockwise or purely counterclockwise closed loop. This is to avoid endless loops, however there may be now or in the future algorithms that work with cycles and handle them seamlessly from mathematical theory and software usability perspectives.
Application to Learning
The application to learning is that the probabilities calculated can be used to predict potential control mechanisms. The litmus test for learning is the ability to reliably alter the future through controls. An important application is the sorting of mail from handwriting. Both neural nets and Naive Bayesian classifiers can be useful in general pattern recognition integrated into routing or manipulation robotics.
Keep in mind here that the term network has a very wide meaning. Neural Nets are not at all the same approach as Bayesian Networks, although they may be applied to similar problem-solution topologies.
Relation to Other Approaches and Mechanisms
How a system designer uses support vector machines, principle component analysis, neural nets, and Bayesian networks in multivariate time series analysis (MTSA) varies from author to author. How they tie together also depends on the problem domain and statistical qualities of the data set, including size, skew, sparseness, and the number of dimensions.
The list given includes only four of a much larger set of machine learning tools. For instance Fuzzy Logic combines weights and production system (rule based) approaches.
The year is also a factor. An answer given now might be stale next year. If I were to write software given the same predictive or control goals as I was given ten years ago, I might combine various techniques entirely differently. I would certainly have a plethora of additional libraries and comparative studies to read and analyse before drawing my system topology.
The field is quite active.
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I'm looking for some help modelling this machine learning problem.
A hand consists of three rows (containing 3, 5, and 5 cards respectively). Your goal is to build a hand that scores the most points. You receive the cards in intervals called streets, five cards in the first street, and three in the next four streets (you must discard one of the cards in the final four streets). Cards can't be moved once you place them. More details on scoring.
My goal is to build a system that, given a set of streets, plays the hand similar to our best players. It seem pretty clear that I'll need to build a neural network for each street, using features based on the existing hand and the set of cards in the street. I've got plenty of data (streets, placements, and final score), but I'm a little unsure how to model the problem given that the possible outputs are unique on the set of cards (although there are less than 3^5 placements in the first street, and 3^3 after). I've previously only dealt with classification problems with fixed categories.
Does anyone have an example of a similar problem or suggestions how to prepare the training data when you have unique outputs?
A vague question gives a vague answer (which is my excuse for being too lazy to code ;-).
You wrote you have a lot of data, and it seems you want to map the game onto experience gained with supervised learning. But that is not the way game-optimization works. One usually does not perform supervised learning, but rather reinforcement learning. The differences are subtle, but reinforcement learning (with Markov decision processes as its theoretical basis) offers more a local view -- like optimize the decision given a specific state. Supervised learning rather corresponds to optimize several decisions at once.
Another show stopper for the usual supervised learning approach is that even if you have a lot of data, it will almost surely be too little. And it will not offer the "required paths".
The usual approach at least since Thesauro's backgammon player is rather: set up the basic rules of the game, possibly introduce human knowledge as heuristics, and then let the program play against itself as often as possible -- this is how google deep mind set up a master go player, for example. See also this interesting video.
In your case, the task should in principle be not that hard, as there is a comparatively small number of game states and, importantly, any issues involved by psychology like bluffing, consistent playing, and so on are completely absent.
So again: build a bot which can play against itself. One common basis is a function Q(S,a) which assigns to any game state and possible action of the player a value -- this is called Q-learning. And this function is often implemented as a neural network ... although I would think it does not need to be that sophisticated here.
I'll stay that vague for now. But I would be glad to assist you further if necessary.
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Let me just start by saying I only took the undergrad AI class at school so I know just enough to be dangerous.
Here's the problem I'm looking to solve...accurate credit scoring is a key part to the success of my business. Currently we rely on a team of actuaries and statistical analysis to suss out patterns in the few dozen variables we track about each individual that indicate that they may be a low or high credit risk. As I understand it this is exactly the type of job that neural nets are great at solving, that is, finding high order relationships across many inputs that a human would likely never spot and then rendering a decision or output that is on average more accurate than what a trained human could do. In short, I want to be able to input your name, address, marital status, what car you drive, where you work, hair color, favorite food, etc in and get a credit score back.
My question is what type or architecture for a neural network would be best for this particular problem. I've done a bit of research and it seems I'm generating questions faster than I'm finding answers at this point. The best I've been able to come up with is some kind of generative deep neural network with multiple hidden layers where each layer is able to abstract one level beyond the previous one. Im assuming it's going to be feed-forward just because it seems to be the default. We have historical data on all previous customers including the information we used to make the initial score as well as data on what type of credit risk they actually turned out to be. This would seem to lend itself to unsupervised learning. Where I'm lost is in number of layers, how the layers are different from each other, size of each layer, connectedness of each of the perceptrons and so on. The more I dig the more I'm getting into research papers that are over my head so I just need some smart person to point me in the right direction
Does anyone have any ideas? Again, I don't need a thorough explanation just a general area I should focus on.
This is supervised learning since you have actual data that can be labelled. It's also feedforward since you're not predicting time series but assigning scores. Further, you should probably just prepare your data (assigning credit scores manually or with some rough heuristic) and start experimenting with some tools before you invest time into implementing state-of-the-art architectures. A multi-layer-perceptron (MLP) with 1 hidden layer is a sufficient starting point for such a problem. From there on, you can train the network to generalize your credit assignment heuristic you began with.
You should know that most "new" architectures you probably read about while researching are dealing with much more difficult problems than credit scoring (speech/image/character recognition/detection). There is a collection of papers on the scenario of credit scoring / risk classification, so I'd recommend reshifting your focus from architectures to actual case studies (see e.g. this paper). Just pick a recent paper with MLPs and apply their parameters. Start simple and improve the system incrementally (as #roganjosh stated).
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I want to have an artificial neural network:
42 input neurons
168 hidden neurons
7 output neurons
This network is to play the game of "Connect Four". At the end of each game, the network gets feedback (game result / win?).
Learning should be done with Temporal Difference Learning.
My questions:
What values should be in my reward array?
And finally: How can I apply it to my game now?
Thank you so much in advance!
First hit is: you're assigning '0' to t in 'main', but your arrays' low-bound is '1', so you're accessing a non-existing element in the loops, hence the AV.
If you had enabled range-checking in compiler options, you'd be getting a range check error and you probably would have find the reason earlier.
BTW, since I have no idea what the code is doing, I wouldn't possibly notice any other errors at this time..
If you're interested in using a third party library (free for non-commercial products, I've been very happy with some tools from this company http://www.mitov.com/html/intelligencelab.html (although I've never used their intelligence lab, just video tools.)
Fast Artificial Neural Network (FANN) is a good open source library, its been optimised and used by a large community, with plenty of support and delphi bindings.
Using dependencies in this area is advised if you don't fully understand what your doing, the smallest detail can have a big impact on how a neural network performs; so best spend your time on your implementation of the network, then on anything else.
Other links that may be helpful for you:
http://delphimagic.blogspot.com.ar/2012/12/red-neuronal-backpropagation.html
(Includes source code)
Coding a Backpropagation neural network with two input neurons, two output and one hidden layer.
The sample provides two sets of data that can train the network and see how accurate learning minimizing the error shown in a graph.
Modifying the program can change the number of times the network trained with test data (epochs)
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I am wanting some expert guidance here on what the best approach is for me to solve a problem. I have investigated some machine learning, neural networks, and stuff like that. I've investigated weka, some sort of baesian solution.. R.. several different things. I'm not sure how to really proceed, though. Here's my problem.
I have, or will have, a large collection of events.. eventually around 100,000 or so. Each event consists of several (30-50) independent variables, and 1 dependent variable that I care about. Some independent variables are more important than others in determining the dependent variable's value. And, these events are time relevant. Things that occur today are more important than events that occurred 10 years ago.
I'd like to be able to feed some sort of learning engine an event, and have it predict the dependent variable. Then, knowing the real answer for the dependent variable for this event (and all the events that have come along before), I'd like for that to train subsequent guesses.
Once I have an idea of what programming direction to go, I can do the research and figure out how to turn my idea into code. But my background is in parallel programming and not stuff like this, so I'd love to have some suggestions and guidance on this.
Thanks!
Edit: Here's a bit more detail about the problem that I'm trying to solve: It's a pricing problem. Let's say that I'm wanting to predict prices for a random comic book. Price is the only thing I care about. But there are lots of independent variables one could come up with. Is it a Superman comic, or a Hello Kitty comic. How old is it? What's the condition? etc etc. After training for a while, I want to be able to give it information about a comic book I might be considering, and have it give me a reasonable expected value for the comic book. OK. So comic books might be a bogus example. But you get the general idea. So far, from the answers, I'm doing some research on Support vector machines and Naive Bayes. Thanks for all of your help so far.
Sounds like you're a candidate for Support Vector Machines.
Go get libsvm. Read "A practical guide to SVM classification", which they distribute, and is short.
Basically, you're going to take your events, and format them like:
dv1 1:iv1_1 2:iv1_2 3:iv1_3 4:iv1_4 ...
dv2 1:iv2_1 2:iv2_2 3:iv2_3 4:iv2_4 ...
run it through their svm-scale utility, and then use their grid.py script to search for appropriate kernel parameters. The learning algorithm should be able to figure out differing importance of variables, though you might be able to weight things as well. If you think time will be useful, just add time as another independent variable (feature) for the training algorithm to use.
If libsvm can't quite get the accuracy you'd like, consider stepping up to SVMlight. Only ever so slightly harder to deal with, and a lot more options.
Bishop's Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning is probably the first textbook to look to for details on what libsvm and SVMlight are actually doing with your data.
If you have some classified data - a bunch of sample problems paired with their correct answers -, start by training some simple algorithms like K-Nearest-Neighbor and Perceptron and seeing if anything meaningful comes out of it. Don't bother trying to solve it optimally until you know if you can solve it simply or at all.
If you don't have any classified data, or not very much of it, start researching unsupervised learning algorithms.
It sounds like any kind of classifier should work for this problem: find the best class (your dependent variable) for an instance (your events). A simple starting point might be Naive Bayes classification.
This is definitely a machine learning problem. Weka is an excellent choice if you know Java and want a nice GPL lib where all you have to do is select the classifier and write some glue. R is probably not going to cut it for that many instances (events, as you termed it) because it's pretty slow. Furthermore, in R you still need to find or write machine learning libs, though this should be easy given that it's a statistical language.
If you believe that your features (independent variables) are conditionally independent (meaning, independent given the dependent variable), naive Bayes is the perfect classifier, as it is fast, interpretable, accurate and easy to implement. However, with 100,000 instances and only 30-50 features you can likely implement a fairly complex classification scheme that captures a lot of the dependency structure in your data. Your best bet would probably be a support vector machine (SMO in Weka) or a random forest (Yes, it's a silly name, but it helped random forest catch on.) If you want the advantage of easy interpretability of your classifier even at the expense of some accuracy, maybe a straight up J48 decision tree would work. I'd recommend against neural nets, as they're really slow and don't usually work any better in practice than SVMs and random forest.
The book Programming Collective Intelligence has a worked example with source code of a price predictor for laptops which would probably be a good starting point for you.
SVM's are often the best classifier available. It all depends on your problem and your data. For some problems other machine learning algorithms might be better. I have seen problems that neural networks (specifically recurrent neural networks) were better at solving. There is no right answer to this question since it is highly situationally dependent but I agree with dsimcha and Jay that SVM's are the right place to start.
I believe your problem is a regression problem, not a classification problem. The main difference: In classification we are trying to learn the value of a discrete variable, while in regression we are trying to learn the value of a continuous one. The techniques involved may be similar, but the details are different. Linear Regression is what most people try first. There are lots of other regression techniques, if linear regression doesn't do the trick.
You mentioned that you have 30-50 independent variables, and some are more important that the rest. So, assuming that you have historical data (or what we called a training set), you can use PCA (Principal Componenta Analysis) or other dimensionality reduction methods to reduce the number of independent variables. This step is of course optional. Depending on situations, you may get better results by keeping every variables, but add a weight to each one of them based on relevant they are. Here, PCA can help you to compute how "relevant" the variable is.
You also mentioned that events that are occured more recently should be more important. If that's the case, you can weight the recent event higher and the older event lower. Note that the importance of the event doesn't have to grow linearly accoding to time. It may makes more sense if it grow exponentially, so you can play with the numbers here. Or, if you are not lacking of training data, perhaps you can considered dropping off data that are too old.
Like Yuval F said, this does look more like a regression problem rather than a classification problem. Therefore, you can try SVR (Support Vector Regression), which is regression version of SVM (Support Vector Machine).
some other stuff you can try are:
Play around with how you scale the value range of your independent variables. Say, usually [-1...1] or [0...1]. But you can try other ranges to see if they help. Sometimes they do. Most of the time they don't.
If you suspect that there are "hidden" feature vector with a lower dimension, say N << 30 and it's non-linear in nature, you will need non-linear dimensionality reduction. You can read up on kernel PCA or more recently, manifold sculpting.
What you described is a classic classification problem. And in my opinion, why code fresh algorithms at all when you have a tool like Weka around. If I were you, I would run through a list of supervised learning algorithms (I don't completely understand whey people are suggesting unsupervised learning first when this is so clearly a classification problem) using 10-fold (or k-fold) cross validation, which is the default in Weka if I remember, and see what results you get! I would try:
-Neural Nets
-SVMs
-Decision Trees (this one worked really well for me when I was doing a similar problem)
-Boosting with Decision trees/stumps
-Anything else!
Weka makes things so easy and you really can get some useful information. I just took a machine learning class and I did exactly what you're trying to do with the algorithms above, so I know where you're at. For me the boosting with decision stumps worked amazingly well. (BTW, boosting is actually a meta-algorithm and can be applied to most supervised learning algs to usually enhance their results.)
A nice thing aobut using Decision Trees (if you use the ID3 or similar variety) is that it chooses the attributes to split on in order of how well they differientiate the data - in other words, which attributes determine the classification the quickest basically. So you can check out the tree after running the algorithm and see what attribute of a comic book most strongly determines the price - it should be the root of the tree.
Edit: I think Yuval is right, I wasn't paying attention to the problem of discretizing your price value for the classification. However, I don't know if regression is available in Weka, and you can still pretty easily apply classification techniques to this problem. You need to make classes of price values, as in, a number of ranges of prices for the comics, so that you can have a discrete number (like 1 through 10) that represents the price of the comic. Then you can easily run classification it.