I have a matrix of data where the 1st column are dates and the rest (nearly 100 columns) are binary data (0's and 1's). I was tasked to turn them into time series in R, but I'm lost in how to do it.
I'm lost in this one, especially because all info is for time series involving data different than binary data
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I'm using TFT (Temporal Fusion Transformer) from Pytorch-forecating for the first time for my forecasting project. Im quite confused by a few things:
forecasted time series is very flat, what are the possible reasons for this? is it my train data set is too short? the train data set length is between 1 max_encoder_length and 2 times of max_encoder_length, ratio of max_encoder_length:max_prediction_length is 4:1;
how does optimize_hyperparameters work? will it update the model with best parameters after being run? or I should manually update the model with output values of the process? Im asking because after I run it, nothing seem happened, the model remain unchanged.
I have many sequences of data looking like this:
s1 = t11, t12, ..., t1m_1
s2 = t21, t22, ..., t2m_2
...
si = ti1, ti2, ..., tim_i
si means the i-th sequence, tij means the i-th sequence be accessed at time tj
each sequence has different length of data (m_1 may not equal to m_2),
and each sequence's data means that the sequence si was accessed time at ti1, ti2, ..., tim_i.
My goal is to cluster the similar access-time sequences.
I'm not sure whether I can translate this problem to a time-series problem.
For my understanding the time-series data like that each sequence's data means the value at that time like stock data, but my sequence's value means which time the sequence be accessed.
If it can translate to time-series problem, but there is another problem. The problem is that the sequence's access time is very discrete (may be accessed at 1s, 1000s, 2000s), so if I translate to time-series format, its space would be very large, I think this can't run cluster with some algorithm like (DTW), its time complexity may too large.
As you pointed out, DTW would be quite slow, since comparing the first two series takes k * m_1 * m_2 operations.
To avoid this, and to more easily compare your sequences, you might somehow hammer them into the same format (thereby also losing information).
Here are some ideas:
Differentiate to obtain times-between-accesses, and build histograms with fixed bins across all data.
Count the number of accesses during each minute every week (and divide by number of times that minute-of-week appears in each series). Adapt to timescales of interest.
Count "number of accesses up until now". So, instead of having data points only when an access was made ("sparse"), you'd get a data point for every timestamp ("dense") showing accesses for every minute up to the current one.
#3 would be similar to an "integral image" in computer vision. After this, new summarization techniques open up, like moving averages, or even direct comparison (if the recordings happen in parallel).
In order to pick a more useful representation, you need to think about what is meaningful in your application.
After you get a uniform-length representation, you can use cheaper similarity measures. A typical one is cosine similarity (but be sure to normalize first).
I have a discrete time series covering 49 quarters between January 2007 and March 2019, which I am trying to analyse. Before undertaking various forms of analysis I wanted to check for the existence of seasonality and have tried to methods for such in R. In the first I used the WO function (Webel and Ollech) from the seastests package, which informed me that the data did not display seasonality.
library(seastests)
summary(wo(tt))
> summary(wo(tt))
Test used: WO
Test statistic: 0
P-value: 0.8174965 0.5785041 0.2495668
The WO - test does not identify seasonality
However, I wanted to check such again and used the decompose function, from which I got the below, which would appear to suggest a seasonal component. Can anyone advise if;
I am reading the decomposed data correctly?
AND
Why there is such disagreement between decompose and the seastest results?
The decompose function is a simple function that basically estimates the (moving) period average. The volatility of your time series increases strongly in the last years. Thus the averages may pick up on some random increases. Also, the seasonal component that you obtain using the decompose() function will basically always look seasonal.
set.seed(1234)
x <- ts(rnorm(80), frequency=4)
seastests::wo(x)
plot(decompose(x))
Therefore, seasonality tests are preferable to assessing whether a time series really is seasonal.
Still, if you have information that the data generating process has changed, you may want to use the test on the last few years of observations.
I have a number of datasets where each of them contains a number of input variables (lets say 3) as time series and an output variable, also as a time series and all over the same time period.
Each of these series has the same number of datapoints (say 1000*10 if 10 second data was gathered at 1000Hz).
I want to learn from this data and given a new dataset with 3 time serieses for input variables, I want to predict the time series for the output variable.
I will write the problem below in some non-English notation. I will avoid using terms like features, sample, target etc because since I haven't formulated the problem for any algorithm, I don't want to speculate what will be what.
Datasets to learn from look like this:
dataset1:{Inputs=(timSeries1,timSeries2,timSeries3), Output=(timSeriesOut)}
dataset2:{Inputs=(timSeries1,timSeries2,timSeries3), Output=(timSeriesOut)}
dataset3:{Inputs=(timSeries1,timSeries2,timSeries3), Output=(timSeriesOut)}
.
.
datasetn:{Inputs=(timSeries1,timSeries2,timSeries3), Output=(timSeriesOut)}
Now, given a new (timSeries1, timSeries2, timSeries3) I want to predict (timSeriesOut)
datasetPredict:{Inputs=(timeSeries1,timSeries2,timSeries3), Output = ?}
What technique should I use and how should the problem be formulated? Should I just break it as separate learning problem for each time stamp with three features and one target (either for that or next timestamp)?
Thank you all!
Data: When I have N rows of data like this: (x,y,z) where logically f(x,y)=z, that is z is dependent on x and y, like in my case (setting1, setting2 ,signal) . Different x's and y's can lead to the same z, but the z's wouldn't mean the same thing.
There are 30 unique setting1, 30 setting2 and 1 signal for each (setting1, setting2)-pairing, hence 900 signal values.
Data set: These [900,3] data points are considered 1 data set. I have many samples of these data sets.
I want to make a classification based on these data sets, but I need to flatten the data (make them all into one row). If I flatten it, I will duplicate all the setting values (setting1 and setting2) 30 times, i.e. I will have a row with 3x900 columns.
Question:
Is it correct to keep all the duplicate setting1,setting2 values in the data set? Or should I remove them and only include the unique values a single time?, i.e. have a row with 30 + 30 + 900 columns. I'm worried, that the logical dependency of the signal to the settings will be lost this way. Is this relevant? Or shouldn't I bother including the settings at all (e.g. due to correlations)?
If I understand correctly, you are training NN on a sample where each observation is [900,3].
You are flatning it and getting an input layer of 3*900.
Some of those values are a result of a function on others.
It is important which function, as if it is a liniar function, NN might not work:
From here:
"If inputs are linearly dependent then you are in effect introducing
the same variable as multiple inputs. By doing so you've introduced a
new problem for the network, finding the dependency so that the
duplicated inputs are treated as a single input and a single new
dimension in the data. For some dependencies, finding appropriate
weights for the duplicate inputs is not possible."
Also, if you add dependent variables you risk the NN being biased towards said variables.
E.g. If you are running LMS on [x1,x2,x3,average(x1,x2)] to predict y, you basically assign a higher weight to the x1 and x2 variables.
Unless you have a reason to believe that those weights should be higher, don't include their function.
I was not able to find any link to support, but my intuition is that you might want to decrease your input layer in addition to omitting the dependent values:
From professor A. Ng's ML Course I remember that the input should be the minimum amount of values that are 'reasonable' to make the prediction.
Reasonable is vague, but I understand it so: If you try to predict the price of a house include footage, area quality, distance from major hub, do not include average sun spot activity during the open home day even though you got that data.
I would remove the duplicates, I would also look for any other data that can be omitted, maybe run PCA over the full set of Nx[3,900].